10/30/2009

Is a Republican Renaissance on the Horizon?

Right now, things don't look too good for Republicans.  A CNN poll has the party at its lowest favorable rating in a decade, while a Quinnipiac University poll shows that Sarah Palin and Nancy Pelosi have higher favorable ratings than the GOP.  But Democrats can't get too comfortable.   

William Galston, writing for The New Republic, says there are "hard-to-ignore signs of a conservative resurgence" as American's attitudes are shifting rightward on a number of issues. 

Among them: increasing opposition to government regulation of business and gun ownership; an uneasy feeling about the influence of labor unions; increasing support for immigration restrictions and government promotion of traditional values; and diminished support for strong action on climate change. The percentage of Americans who believe that government is trying to do too much stands at its highest level (57 percent) in many years. Trust in government is near all-time lows, and Americans believe that 50 cents of every federal tax dollar is wasted--the highest level ever. 

Galston advises that Democrats need to work hard over the next year to blunt the conservative assault.

If not, the combination of an energized opposition and an electorate battered by high unemployment, slow growth, and the perception of out-of-control spending could set the stage for an ugly outcome. This wouldn't mean that Republicans had regained credibility as a governing party; odds are that it will take more than two years to erase the public's sour memories of the Republican congressional majority and George W. Bush's presidency. It would mean that a substantial portion of the electorate wanted to send Democrats a message that they had gone too far.

Galston, who served in the Clinton administration, says the White House was derailed by the 1994 midterm elections, and it took Democrats a decade to recover from that debacle.  

Bottom line?  Even if people don't like the Republicans, they still might vote for them.

tags: election central