Surprising no one, our "Political Insiders" say Provo Mayor John Curtis is the odds-on favorite to win the special congressional election in November.
Curtis prevailed in the three-way GOP primary last week, setting up a general election contest against Democrat Kathie Allen and a handful of minor party candidates, including Jim Bennett of the newly formed United Utah Party.
Our "Insiders" say, barring something bizarre happening between now and November, Curtis should win going away this fall.
A wide majority of the Republicans who responded to our survey (93%), along with most Democrats (68%) and most of our readers (68%) say Curtis should be the ultimate winner in November.
5% of Republicans said Democrat Kathie Allen would win, as did 26% of Democrats and 22% of our readers.
Just 2% of Republicans, 6% of Democrats and 8% of our readers picked United Utah Party candidate Jim Bennett to win.
Nobody who responded to our survey chose Libertarian candidate Joe Buchman or Independent American nominee Jason Christensen. About 2% of our readers said they thought someone else who we hadn't listed would win.
Selected anonymous comments:
Uh, this is a no-brainer. Go, Mayor Curtis!
You should add Sean Whalen. He'll make for a good sideshow.
Are you kidding? How could anyone but Curtis win? This is still Utah, and he's the only R.
Landslide! John Curtis is now a front runner for Governor in 2020.
Like most elections in this state, this one was over on Primary Day.
The primary was the de facto general election. The Utah Legislature drew the boundaries to disenfranchise every general election voter. It's over.
There are two Democrats in this election. The candidate honest enough to run on the Democratic ticket will win. Republicans will not unite in support for John Curtis which will take the seat away from the Republican Party.
This race is over. Moderate Dems will cross over and support Curtis. Dr. Allen has a lot of money but doesn't have the experience to make this a close race in this district. She had a better chance against Chaffetz but Curtis is a clean slate, and it is harder to tie him to Trump.
Kathie Allen had a 1% chance of beating Herrod. She has a 0% chance of besting Curtis.
I would hope Utah would stop blindly voting R, but also know that partisan beliefs don't change quickly.
If progressive folks turn out to vote, Kathie Allen could win.
Does anyone doubt who the November winner will be -- as long as there is no massive public scandal of some kind? This is Utah County we're talking about, right?
Curtis will win because he has an "R" after his name. Jim Bennett would be my choice if I could vote in that district. This may sound unscientific or politically naive, but Jim seems the right person for the job...just sayin'.
If Bennett splits the Republican vote, as seems likely, Allen has a chance to win it.
Kathie Allen has zero political skills and is way too liberal for the district. Jim Bennett is a nice guy but has zero chance of winning.
I'd love to see a Bennett win, but he's going to have a harder time with Curtis as the Republican candidate.
Dr. Allen has been far too cozy with the Bernie Sanders people and her negative comments about the LDS Church will do much damage to her and her effort to be a congresswoman. She is smart and talented but unrealistic about the Congressional District.
Jim Bennett is a better moderate than John Curtis.
John isn't just the Republican in a highly Republican district, he's the best candidate with the best record by a country mile.
Anyone who thinks anyone other than John Curtis is going to win is simply deluding themselves.
Kathie Allen was all about beating up on Chaffetz. With Chaffetz out of the picture and her opponent a moderate Republican, she is going to have a tough time running on a liberal Democratic platform in CD 3. Curtis wins handily.
The general election race would have been interesting if Herrod had won the Republican nomination. It would have let us see whether a startup party committed to moderate ideas could have taken off. Now that the moderate candidate has secured the Republican nomination, whatever wind might have filled UUP's sails is gone. Absent a major scandal, Curtis has this one sewn up.
Anyone saying they believe anyone but Curtis will win is just playing games.
It is his race to lose, but the introduction of Jim Bennett into the race could split the Republican vote and allow Kathie Allen to slip in. It will depend upon whether Bennett gains any traction among Independents and Republicans.
Either way, we will have a Democrat, might as well elect the honest one. Allen all the way!
As much as I welcome the United Utah Party's effort to capture the middle, John Curtis is a thinking man's conservative, meaning he is practical and willing to find reasonable and workable solutions.
I am pretty impressed with the options. I would be happy (and shocked) with Kathie Allen or Bennett. I lived in Provo while Curtis was mayor and am also very happy with him, being a bit more moderate. He will be the winner, and I am not complaining.
If a rock had the (R) next to its name in UT-3, it'd win.
John Curtis is the heavy favorite, no questions asked. Anyone who thinks someone besides him stands any chance is kidding themselves.