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Our "Political Insiders" say the ballot initiative to establish direct primary elections is the most likely to get on next year's ballot and pass.

There are five proposed ballot initiatives vying for a spot on the 2018 ballot:

  • "Teacher and Student Success Act," also known as Our Schools Now, which would boost sales and income taxes to increase school funding.

  • "Utah Independent Redistricting Commission and Standards Act," which would establish an independent redistricting advisory commission.

  • "Utah Decides Healthcare Act," which would put full Medicaid expansion to a public vote.

  • "Direct Primary Election Act," known as Count My Vote, which dumps Utah's caucus/convention system for a direct primary election to determine nominees in partisan races.

  • "Utah Medical Cannabis Act," which legalizes certain types of medicinal marijuana.

We asked our "Political Insiders" and readers to rank which of the initiatives was most likely to reach the 2018 ballot:

  • Count My Vote was tops with 40% of respondents saying it was the most likely to get the required signatures for next year.

  • The medical marijuana proposal was next, as 35% of those who responded said it was most likely to meet the requirements to get on the ballot.

  • Our Schools Now was in 3rd place, with just 19% saying it was most likely to get on the ballot. However, 22% said the proposal was least-likely to show up next year.

  • Only 16% said the independent redistricting proposal was most likely to make it to voters next year.

  • The proposal to fully expand Medicaid was last with 27% saying it was the least likely to get the needed signatures.

Our panel also predicted which of the five initiatives would be most likely to pass next year if they make the ballot.

  • Count My Vote was deemed most likely to pass next year, with 42% saying it had the best chance of passing.

  • Medical marijuana was picked second, with 35% of our saying it had the best odds.

  • Independent redistricting, Medicaid expansion and Our Schools Now were picked as the third, fourth, and least likely to pass in that order. Surprisingly, 25% of our group said Our Schools Now was least expected to pass.

All of the proposals have until April of 2018 to collect the required 113,000 signatures to make the ballot.

Selected anonymous comments:

These are complex issues that do not lend themselves to the binary choices of ballot initiatives. This does not portend good things.

Good luck, Utah voters. This election we will know what it is like to be a California voter with all of the initiatives.

Pretty tough sledding for all 5 to get on the ballot. The bar is purposely high, but all is not lost if some don't make it. At least the legislature will get a signal and may take them up during a legislative session. Let's please not become California with governing by ballot initiative.

You can get anything on the ballot with money.

None are worth signing. None are worth voting for.

Predictions may be difficult here, but this is a great example of how many of our state lawmakers (possibly just leadership in the body), are out of touch with issues that resonate with many voters in Utah. I feel that all of these initiatives have merit, excepting medical cannibals, which needs much more study.

Having a high number of initiatives on the ballot is a tremendous benefit to those most likely to pass. Get the signatures, and it's bye-bye caucus/convention system.

I would hope that Medicaid expansion would be at the top of everyone's list, but I know it will be blocked if possible.

I think they all have a chance of passing.

They all have problems and take us one step closer to the cesspool of ideas that has become California.

Five citizen initiatives will be confusing for citizens. People will think they have already signed the petition LONG before all five initiatives have the signatures they need. Consequently, the first 2 to 3 petitions to get the signatures will be the ONLY ones to get on the ballot.

They all deserve to be passed because of the Legislature's inaction on these issues. I think it will be more difficult, however, to educate the public about the need for tax increases that would accompany OSN and Medicaid expansion (I hope I'm wrong about this).

Let's just hope that all of these misguided initiatives get shot down. That's why California is so messed up is because of all of their ballot initiatives. People tend to forget that there is much wisdom in our representative form of government as established by our founding fathers.

Count My Vote, sales tax increases, and cannabis are the main issues. However; I believe that if Count My Vote is successful, and the antiquated caucus system is eliminated, the other issues will solve themselves. It will allow elected officials to vote their conscience and not party lines.

Utahns are tired of legislative games on education, healthcare, and elections. However, the standards to get on the ballot are incredibly onerous, which will prevent all five from qualifying. Utah will also be targeted by out-of-state groups who see opportunities for "movement" wins.