Evan McMullin, who burst upon Utah’s political scene last year when he ran as an independent in the U.S. presidential race, is doing okay in a new favorable/unfavorable poll for UtahPolicy.com.
Dan Jones & Associates found that McMullin, a former CIA operative, has a 42 percent favorable rating – that is, 42 percent of Utahns like him.
Twenty-eight percent have a “very” or “somewhat” unfavorable opinion of him; 21 percent have heard of McMullin, but have no opinion of him; and 10 percent have never heard of him.
Considering that 11 percent of the constituents of sitting U.S. Rep. Chris Stewart, R-Utah, have never heard of Stewart – their own congressman — McMullin’s 10 percent “unknown” factor is not bad, statewide.
McMullin is said to be considering a run in the 3rd Congressional District, should Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, decide to resign his seat early.
Chaffetz said two weeks ago he won’t be running for any office in 2018, and added that he may resign his post early, to return to the private sector and make some money.
While McMullin ran as an independent for president last year, he is basically a Republican, although apparently with some libertarian leanings.
With little money, but an anti-Trump/anti-Clinton agenda, McMullin got 21.5 percent of the vote in Utah.
Democrat Hillary Clinton got 27.5 percent of the vote here, while Trump won Utah with 45.5 percent of the vote – a poor showing for the GOP nominee in very red Utah.
It’s been generally assumed that in the very Republican 3rd District, McMullin would be handicapped by running as an independent, not a Republican, a year ago.
But Jones finds McMullin would do OK among Republicans – at least from starting with some name I.D., if not a clear party base.
Among Republicans statewide, McMullin gets a 40 percent approval rating; 29 percent disapprove of him; 19 percent have heard of him, but have no opinion; and 12 percent have never heard of him.
Democrats give him a 39-32 favorable rating, with 21 percent having heard of McMullin, but having no opinion of him.
One would think McMullin would do better among independents – since he ran as an independent last year.
And that is the case: Independents give McMullin a 47-23 percent favorable rating, with 22 percent having heard of him, but having no opinion of him.
In the 3rd District alone, McMullin has a 38-26 percent approval rating; with 23 percent having heard of him, but having no opinion; and 13 percent never heard of him.
McMullin is clearly a conservative/libertarian. And so he would not do well among Democrats or those with a liberal philosophy.
But, perhaps because he opposed Trump – the GOP nominee – and had little good to say about the new president, those who told Jones they are “very conservative” philosophically don’t like McMullin much:
- The “very conservatives” give McMullin a poor 37-34 percent favorable rating.
- Those who self-identified to Jones they are “somewhat” conservative like McMullin, 49-28 percent.
- Moderates favor him, 44-18 percent.
- Those who said they are “somewhat” liberal give him a 40-26 percent favorable rating.
- While the “very liberals” have McMullin on the unfavorable side, 37-31 percent – more dislike him than like him.
McMullin is LDS. And “very active” Mormons give him a favorable rating, 49-26 percent.
If he should decide to run as a Republican in an open 3rd District race, McMullin would clearly have his work cut out for him.
But Jones’ newest survey for UtahPolicy does not show McMullin in a bad position.
With only 13 percent of 3rd District voters not knowing who he is, and 23 percent open to getting to know him (recognizing his name, but no opinion), McMullin would start a 3rd District campaign with more in his favor than against him.
Jones polled 844 adults statewide from March 22-29. That sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.37 percent.
Jones polled 197 adults in the 3rd District, that sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.98 percent.
