When you are 30 points down in a reputable public opinion poll, you know your candidacy is in trouble.
But a deeper look into Dr. Kathie Allen’s Democratic run in Utah’s 3rd Congressional District special election shows just how badly her once-promising campaign is now going.
UtahPolicy.com conducted a survey by Dan Jones & Associates of 608 3rd District voters – the survey was used by the Utah Debate Commission as its benchmark into deciding who could participate in its Oct. 18 debate.
Only Allen and GOP candidate John Curtis made the cutoff – they face each other on that BYU TV evening event.
Overall, Provo Mayor Curtis gets 50.17 percent support to Allen’s 19.82 percent. Other candidates pick up small percentages, and 17.69 percent said they are undecided.
So with just over 6 and ½ weeks to go, Allen is 30-plus points down to Curtis.
Last spring, when Allen was running against then-3rd District Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, and was fund raising like crazy from anti-Republican, pro-Democrat, and anti-Chaffetz national groups, her candidacy had surprising life.
But then Chaffetz resigned to be a TV commentator.
Curtis, a moderate candidate compared to several other Republicans in the race, won the Aug. 15 GOP primary – eliminating the arch-conservative Chris Herrod.
Allen no doubt hoped that Herrod would win the GOP nomination, for that would still set her up as the more mainstream, or moderate, alternative.
But she ends up with the less-conservative, much-liked Provo mayor.
And the new Jones’ survey shows her base has shrunk way down to just hard-core liberals and Democrats – which you don’t find in large numbers in the conservative 3rd District.
Just look at some of the numbers:
— Allen is not clicking with women, the hoped for base of an accomplished female candidate like herself.
Allen does better among women than men, yes, but not by much – 18 percent of men support her, but she still only gets 21 percent of the female vote.
— Allen hopes to draw a lot of votes from “the 37,000 Millennials at BYU (Brigham Young University) and UVU (Utah Valley University,” as this Tweet by her shows.
Yet she is way behind in those age groups – Curtis leads her 40-5 percent in those 18-24 and 49-19 percent in those 25-34 years old.
— For any Democrat to win a major race in Utah she needs to get the lion’s share (60 percent-plus) of independent voters, even a good slice of the GOP voters.
Allen doesn’t.
Curtis actually leads Allen among independents, 38-23 percent.
She gets only 1 percent of the GOP vote, while Curtis gets 9 percent of the Democratic vote.
Allen’s other hope is that the hard-core Herrod primary voters will either stay home, or maybe even consider voting for her.
That is still a bit of a possibility – but Jones’ numbers don’t show much hope for her there, either:
— 17 percent of Republicans said they are still undecided about whom to vote for in November. Many of those are likely Herrod advocates.
— Likewise, 17 percent of those who self-identified to Jones that they are “very conservative” politically are undecided. Those are even more likely to be strong (bitter?) Herrod backers.
But even if they stay away from the polls Nov. 7, that won’t help Allen much – Curtis is still over 50 percent in the vote without them.
How about moderates going to Allen?
Curtis says he is a conservative – like every Utah GOP candidate in a major race, he’s staying away from the “moderate” label.
But Jones finds that among the “moderates” in the poll, Curtis gets 43 percent support compared to Allen’s 20 percent. He does even better, of course, among conservatives. And while she does well among the “somewhat” and “very” liberals, there are few of those in her district.
The Provo mayor is, as one would expect, a good Mormon; and Curtis gets 64 percent of the “active” LDS vote, compared to Allen’s 7 percent.
Utah County is the heart of the 3rd District, and very Mormon.
The district’s eastside Salt Lake County area is much more diversified and moderate/liberal, or Democratic.
Allen beats Curtis in Salt Lake County, 36-34 percent.
But she trails him in Utah County, 58-12 percent.
All these numbers show that Allen’s once hopeful campaign is in real, real trouble.
Allen – and some of her anti-Chaffetz out-of-state backers – may have seen some light last spring, but now with Chaffetz gone and the seemingly-popular, more moderate, Curtis the GOP flag-bearer, it looks like a healthy Republican win in the 3rd District again.
The poll of 608 voters was conducted Aug. 30 to Sept. 9, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.98 percent.
