As President Donald Trump is set to visit Utah on Monday, most Utahns say they would not vote for him if he runs for re-election in 2020.
A new UtahPolicy.com survey finds that only 33% of Utahns would vote for Trump in 2020 if he were to run for a second term. 47% of Utahns said they would vote for his opponent, while 20% did not have an opinion.
Trump carried Utah in 2016, but only got 45.5% of the vote. That suggests that the 47% who did not vote for Trump last year have not changed their mind about him. What's surprising is Trump's ballot support has seemingly dropped 12 percent from last year.
Another recent poll showed 53% of Utahns disapprove of Trump's job performance, which has remained remarkably consistent since Trump was inaugurated earlier this year. In fact, Trump has not been above 50% in Utah by any measure since the 2016 election.
President Trump is visiting Utah Monday to announce his decision to reduce the size of both the Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monuments. He will also visit Welfare Square and meet with LDS Church leaders during his time in Utah.
55% of Utah Republicans said they would vote for Trump if he ran in 2020, which is alarming considering how dominant the GOP is in Utah. 22% said they would vote for Trump's opponent, suggesting that Utah Republican voters are uncomfortable enough with his antics that they would be open to voting for a qualified candidate. The survey did not make a distinction between a primary and general election.
In a result that will surprise no one, Utah Democrats would overwhelmingly support another candidate over Trump, with 96% saying they would vote for Trump's opponent in 2020. 1% of Utah Democrats say they would vote for Trump, which makes you wonder who that 1% is.
Independent voters in Utah are not happy with Trump either. 63% of unaffiliated voters said they would vote for Trump's opponent in 2020, while just 15% would cast a ballot for the current president. That result is significant as there are nearly as many unaffiliated voters in as there are Republicans.
Does this suggest there's an opening for a Democratic or independent candidate in Utah in 2020, ala Evan McMullen? Probably not. While 47% of Utahns say they would be interested in voting for someone other than Trump in 2020, it would take a major sea-change for a state that has gone Republican in every presidential election to back a candidate other than a Republican. The easier explanation is Utahns are still not wholly comfortable with Donald Trump in the White House. If a more "mainstream" Republican candidate were to emerge in 2020, Utahns would likely line up behind them enthusiastically.
The Dan Jones & Associates survey was conducted November 16-21, 2017 among 600 registered Utah voters. It has a margin of error of 4.0%.