GOP legislative leaders tell UtahPolicy.com that the ball is in the Our Schools Now political court – if the citizen petition group and its advocates in the Utah House can find 38 votes for a compromise, the bill will be considered before adjournment midnight Thursday.
Otherwise, any “deal” between lawmakers and OSN leaders that would raise around $300 million a year for public schools – and end the initiative petition effort – will fail.
GOP Gov. Gary Herbert weighed in Tuesday afternoon, calling a press conference to publicly encourage lawmakers to pass the OSN compromise.
“Some good things come out” of the compromise, said Herbert. “A lot more money put into education. But not just public education, but higher education, as well.”
Sources tell UtahPolicy.com that reaching the 38 vote threshold in the House, which would presumably include 13 Democratic votes, is far from a sure thing.
GOP lawmakers say there is no need for a lot of politicking or arm-twisting if the votes can’t be found in the House.
“We won’t be taking” a House GOP caucus position on any initiative-ending deal, one House leader told UtahPolicy.com. House GOP leaders reportedly told the caucus during a closed-door meeting on Monday that there wouldn’t be a caucus vote on the school funding accord, which makes political sense as all 62 Republicans in the House are up for election this year. Voting to place a hefty per-gallon gas tax increase on the 2018 ballot could leave them vulnerable to an electoral challenge.
So, the sales pitch for the deal will move out of the caucus room and on to the floor.
Rep. Becky Edwards, R-North Salt Lake, will try to find the 38 votes HJR20, which was unveiled on Tuesday afternoon.
Her bill is scheduled for a specially-called House committee hearing Wednesday. That’s merely procedural – as House GOP leaders say they want at least 38 firm votes or the bill won’t come to the floor.
If it passes the House, then the Senate will take it up. Leaders there believe it will get the 15 votes to put it on Herbert’s desk, but that’s also not a sure bet as Senate Republicans won’t seek a GOP caucus position on the proposal.
“We’ve mentioned the deal to our caucus,” said Senate Majority Whip Stuart Adams, R-Layton. “I’m not sure how our colleagues are approaching it.”
And there’s no doubt Gov. Herbert will sign it – he made that plain.
The compromise does four good things, he said:
- Provides more than $300 million more each year for public schools.
- Lets voters approve a 10-cent-per-gallon increase in the state gasoline tax.
Road users need to pay more, because upwards of $600 million a year is going into the Transportation Fund in General Fund sales tax revenue.
That’s not good tax policy, said Herbert. Those using the roads should be paying for the roads.
- Helps with good tax reform policy. “We won’t get all the tax reform done” in the current session.
But the overall deal will “freeze” property taxes – a traditional source of school funding – at around 15 percent of the overall school program, with the ability to grow with real estate inflation over time.
- All this is achieved “without harm to our economy.” Herbert opposed OSN’s slight increase in the personal income and state sales tax rates under the argument that such a general tax hike could harm Utah’s growing economy – one of the best in the nation.
Meanwhile, Tuesday morning, OSN board member and former GOP House speaker Nolan Karras was standing outside of the House Chambers, talking one-on-one or with small groups of GOP lawmakers, seeing if he could bring them along to a deal.
When UtahPolicy.com asked House Majority Leader Brad Wilson, R-Kaysville, what was happening on a possible deal, he pointed out the double doors from the Chamber to the rotunda and said it is up to them – Karras and OSN – to find the votes.
UtahPolicy.com previously reported on the deal on the table, which includes freezing the property tax rate and a possible ballot initiative in November to raise the gas tax by $0.10 per gallon.
Meanwhile, Rep. Brad Last, R-Hurricane, the House’s budget chairman, will run a comprehensive budget/tax reform bill that will contain several tax reforms that could be part of the OSN deal.
That bill, however, stands on its own.
It will be moved through the House, and only then – if Edwards has the votes – will the OSN deal bill move forward, and hopefully to the Senate and governor.
If all falls into place, the OSN petition will end.
Instead of getting $715 million a year over three years, as the petition calls for with a slight rise in the sales and income taxes, schools would get more than $300 million a year more – which will grow as property taxes naturally increase through real estate inflation.
