Race Rating Change: Utah House 31

Democrat Larry Wiley barely held on to this seat in 2012 by a scant 77 votes.

Utah Policy believes his Republican opponent, Sophia DiCaro is a much stronger candidate than Fred Johnson was in 2012, and Johnson came within a hair of knocking Wiley off. Wiley is in for the political fight of his life this time around. It’s going to take a Herculean effort to keep this seat in Democratic hands this year.

We rate this seat as the most likely to change party control in 2014.

Original Rating: Toss-Up

New Rating: Lean Republican

See our complete list of 2014 race ratings here.