Utah is not exactly friendly political territory to the Clinton family. In 1992, Bill Clinton finished third behind George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot. If the 2016 election comes down to Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton, the former Secretary of State could be in for a political beatdown in the Beehive State.
Our latest UtahPolicy.com survey conducted by Dan Jones and Associates finds Bush would best Clinton by a 66-23% margin. That's a whopping 43%.
Clinton vs. Bush round 2 is not a sure thing. Bush has fallen to 4th or 5th place nationally behind Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina according to the Real Clear Politics average. Fiorina is surging following a solid debate performance.
A CNN poll released Thursday had Bush in 5th place behind Trump, Carson, Fiorina and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.
Clinton still leads the national polls, but Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is closing on her and has taken the lead in a couple of states, including Vermont, Iowa and Utah. Vice President Joe Biden has not yet decided whether he will run in 2016, but he is also gaining on the former Secretary of State.
A number of prominent Utah Republicans have already thrown their support behind Bush's 2016 bid, including Sen. Orrin Hatch and Gov. Gary Herbert.
As one would expect, Republicans, conservatives and independent voters break for Bush in large numbers while Democrats and liberals overwhelmingly back Clinton.
- Utah Republicans say they prefer Bush over Clinton by an astonishing 89-2% margin.
- Democrats in Utah pick Clinton over Bush by an 81-14 score.
- Among Utah independents, the race would be a little closer. That group would vote for Bush over Clinton 56-29%.
Ideologically, the results are what you might imagine, with those on the right gravitating toward Bush while those who lean left go for Clinton.
- "Very conservative" Utahns pick Bush 85-2%
- "Somewhat conservative" residents like Bush 84-6%.
- "Moderates" say they would pick Bush over Clinton 58-30%.
- "Somewhat liberal" Utahns break toward Clinton 70-18%
- "Very liberal" voters say they like Clinton over Bush 82-13%.
The survey was conducted September 8-17 among 604 adult Utahns. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.