"Rarely do elections present so many divergent health care scenarios that are all plausible and critically important," said Leavitt Partners President and CEO Rich McKeown. "The implementation of federal health reform affects one-fifth of the American economy and collaborative, high-value intelligence is enormously useful."
The analysis is drawn from a product of Leavitt Partners called Health Reform Bracketology. The firm utilizes a bracket approach – much like that used in sporting events – to consider how various election scenarios impact public entitlement programs, insurance market reforms, insurance distribution and payment, and delivery reform. The election variables include who wins the White House and which party controls both houses of Congress. As a companion piece, an anonymous survey of industry leaders, congressional members, Capitol Hill staffers, current and former administration officials, and policy experts from differing ideological perspectives share predictions about how election outcomes impact central features of federal health reform.
The majority of participants in the most recent survey believe the following:
- Exchange enrollment — If the current political make-up persists, only half of the states that choose to establish their own exchange will be ready for plan enrollment by fall 2013. This has enormous implications for states as they seek to control their destiny and for the federal government with a significant workload to implement the law.
- Medicare changes — Regardless of who wins the presidency, if Congress remains divided Medicare will still be modified through costs-sharing, benefits and/or age. Panelists concur that economic pressures will cause entitlement reform to occur under any election scenario.
- Medicaid expansion — If Gov. Romney wins the White House with a split congress, at least 10 or more states will not expand their Medicaid programs. This will have a significant impact on insurance coverage.
- Medicare premium support — If Republicans sweep the election, legislation will pass for Medicare premium-support. It is also likely that Republicans will use Congressman Ryan's plan as a blueprint for broader Medicare reforms.
Leavitt Partners developed the analysis under the consultation of the Leavitt Partners FuturePanel, a diverse group of health care thought leaders who have shaped and continue to shape the future of American health care (see a list of members below). The panel is not unanimous in their opinions. This diversity of thought is reflected in the findings, as well as survey data included in the analysis. The result is a very measured, pragmatic and balanced analysis of what the future could hold.
Leavitt Partners cautions that Health Reform Bracketology scenarios depict alternative futures, not desired futures. As a health intelligence firm, Leavitt Partners shares intelligence that helps entities make smart decisions. Equipped with trusted intelligence, clients are better prepared to navigate the substantial complexity and uncertainty in today's health care environment.
FuturePanel is an authoritative group of health care thought leaders who inform, refine and guide the health care intelligence shared by Leavitt Partners. FuturePanel members include former senior executives from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, national leaders in health information technology, veterans of state-level health care policy, clinical experts and economic and legal professionals.
FuturePanel members include:
Joel Ario, former director of the Office of Insurance Exchanges, HHS Robin Arnold-Williams, former secretary of the Washington State Department of Social and Health Services Thomas Barker, former acting general counsel for HHS Dr. David Blumenthal, former national coordinator for health information technology Charlene Frizzera, former acting administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Dr. Brent James,Chief Quality Officer, Intermountain Healthcare Dr. James Madara, executive vice president and chief medical officer of the American Medical Association Karen Milgate, former deputy director for the Center for Strategic Planning and CMS Dr. John Nelson, past-president of the American Medical Association and LP chief medical officer Ray Scheppach, former executive director of the National Governors Association Dr. Barry Straube, former chief medical officer for CMS Ronald Williams, former chairman and CEO of Aetna Inc. Susan Winckler,former chief of staff for the Food and Drug Administration Vince Ventimiglia, former assistant secretary for legislation, HHS
About Health Reform Bracketology™
Health Reform Bracketology is a fun and instructive tool designed by Leavitt Partners that illustrates potential future scenarios in American health care. Referenced by media outlets such asThe New York Times and Kaiser Health News, Health Reform Bracketology is patterned after sports bracketology. Leavitt Partners identifies various U.S. election scenarios, makes a series of assumptions and then presents the implications in simple and easy-to-understand terms. Learn more at HealthReformBracketology.com.