Utah Republicans packed their biennial caucus meetings, doubling or even tripling turnout over two years ago.

Our insiders think that massive turnout is good news for Sen. Orrin Hatch, predicting he will at least advance to a primary election after the state convention.

They also think the big turnout was a blow to the Tea Party movement in Utah and may herald a more "moderate" tone in Utah politics.

Do you think Sen. Orrin Hatch was able to win enough delegates at last week's GOP caucus meetings to avoid losing the GOP nomination at the convention in April?
	Republican insiders	Democratic insiders	UtahPolicy.com readers
Hatch won enough to win the nomination outright	32%	33%	42%
Hatch won enough to at least advance to a primary	65%	61%	52%
Hatch did not do enough and will be defeated at convention	3%	6%	6%

Some anonymous comments:

"Increased attendance meant fewer people who really follow politics, which worked in Hatch's favor. For Hatch...an uninformed voter is an asset to his re-election effort. Sad, but true."

"In the 3 precincts that met at our location, 6 of the 7 delegates elected were vocal Hatch supporters. One was undecided."

"Hatch did VERY well on caucus night, but I don't think his campaign deserves all of the credit. Mostly, I believe what happened at those meetings was a natural correction (or a knee-jerk reaction) to the events from two years ago. Although the tea party was ecstatic at Bob Bennett's ouster without a primary, the general public was not. In addition, special efforts by the Utah Republican Party and the LDS Church also pushed a lot of first timers to attend. So Hatch's campaign will get all the credit, but it only deserves a fraction of it."

"The anti-Hatch was clearly not as strong as the anti-Bennett of two years ago, but this race is far from over. Since the delegates aren't 'pledged' there will be a lot of delegate courting during the next month."

"The Church delivered for Orrin.... Big Time!"

"In our precinct, not only did the pro-Hatch delegates win, they won by a 3-1 margin."

"Caucus system is outmoded and must be replaced ASAP!"

"The subtle rule change that required every state delegate to get more than 50% of the vote to be elected helped assure that pro-Hatch delegates were elected."

"Everyone I have spoken to has indicated that their Caucus meeting had a pro-Hatch atmosphere and that mostly Hatch delegates were elected."

"This year's caucus meeting was totally different than two years ago. This year the mainstream Republicans were in a majority and all the state delegates where mainstream. The far right and tea party people were present. They tried their best to get the delegate positions, but did not have anywhere near a majority like they did two years ago."

"Hatch forgets the oldest rule in a caucus convention system....delegates lie."

Did the massive turnout at the GOP caucus meetings deal a setback to the Tea Party movement in Utah?
	Republican insiders	Democratic insiders	UtahPolicy.com readers
Yes	73%	80%	75%
No	19%	11%	25%

Some anonymous comments:

"Whodathunk that the LDS church would put the smack down on the Tea Party...yea for Mormons!"

Whether you agree with them or not, the Tea Party movement has influenced Utah, and will continue to do so. It's great to have people more involved in government - we need 10 more Tea Parties of all different types of ideology."

"The tea party still exists but it definitely isn't a 'movement' any more. This wasn't a set back, the set back was when they got too crazy with power after Bennett's defeat and no one took the movement seriously any more."

"What set the Tea Party back was allowing other groups to hijack their mojo. What was about lower taxes and less intrusive government turned into birthers, anti-immigration acolytes and those wishing for the Rapture ."

"2010 was a perfect storm for the Tea Party movement: years of caucus complacency, neglect of his constituency by Bennett, the raw nerve of the economic meltdown still exposed, and critical very high profile bailout votes just hours before the 2010 caucuses."

"Mainstream voters don't turn out to caucuses leaving it to the far right faction. This time they did."

"Yes...this year. I don't think the long, hand-counted votes with certain involved 'weird' neighbors made permanent converts of the new caucus attendees."

"The Tea Party movement was already waning. The $3 million Hatch spent on turning our delegates did do damage to the idea that money doesn't matter in the caucus system, though."

"The Tea Party forced Hatch to run as a Tea Party candidate. How is that anything other than a demonstration of the strength of a grass roots movement?"

"If nothing else it showed the Tea Party folks that they are not mainstream Republicans."

"Probably diffused their power a bit but I would not call it a setback."

"The Tea Party movement was already on the wane. There is a thin line between the Tea Party and mainstream Republicans. We embrace the same priorities, but have different strategies to accomplish them. I think much of this is mending."

"The caucus I attended believed that 'Freedom Works' is anti-incumbent, anti-Romney, and anti-Mormon. People were still mad that Senator Bennett was ousted by such a group and their stealth tactics."

"People are tired of the hostile, fear-based rhetoric of the Tea Party."

"Yep. Tea party in Utah is dead. It's too bad that a movement that started off well went completely off the rails."

"The Tea Party began with laudable ideals but (like so many "revolutions") it was hijacked by a few dictatorial power grabbers and those few rotten apples spoiled the bunch."

"It was a set back for the nut jobs. Many Utah voters agree with the limited government and debt problems high lighted by the Tea Party, but the Tea Party gave a big umbrella to nuts who use to be 'Constitutional Party.' This has simply put them back to their basements where they belong. Their movement is hurt by the leadership they have allowed to co-opt the message."

Will this year's caucus results result in a more moderate tone in Utah politics?
	Republican insiders	Democratic insiders	UtahPolicy.com readers
Yes	80%	54%	76%
No	15%	43%	15%

"I seriously hope we move to a more moderate tone. The fringe ideologues are damaging the nation."

"The movement to increase caucus attendance was an unique event."

"It will be business as usual. I think the party corrected itself after two crazies were elected to two top GOP spots. It will go from crazy to conservative, but won't go as far as moderate."

"At least from the election standpoint, the establishment will not be seen as a negative like last time around. As a state delegate in 2010 the tone has changed dramatically."

"The tone may worsen with the extreme wing being bitter in defeat."

"Yes! Absolutely. Utah was never as extreme as the 2010 delegates were. The ship has now righted itself, and the pendulum has swung back toward the center like so many expected it would. The tea party signed its own death warrant by taking on the LDS Church over immigration. It may have won a few resolution battles, but it lost the war."

"It was very clear that there was now a more moderate tone in the precinct or should I say that same moderate tone that was always there had had enough and where now getting involved. Many comments where made on how people had had enough of the outside influence and the lack of civility from groups such as 'Freedomworks.' I think the moderate Republican decided to get of the couch and get involved."

"The shrill tone in Utah politics in the last few years hasn't been appreciated by the majority of Utahns. 'Moderation' shouldn't mean returning the same dinosaurs to Washington year after year, however."

"The 'tone' of politics is almost entirely a construct of the news media. The 'tone' of Utah politics will be reported as more or less moderate as the chattering classes decree, but that declaration will be the result of subjective judgments and selective examples."

"The real answer to this question will depend on whether this type of turnout can be sustained in future years."

"The crazies still run the show."

"Many of the participants in this year's party caucus process have not been involved previously. It appeared that a majority of these participants expressed views that were more centrist and willing to collaborate and cooperate on issues."

"It may also be the source of further polarization and the potential formation of a minor third party. The Tea Party could never amass the membership to win outright, so the only outcome of forming a third party would be to give the Democrats a win."

"I hope so, but I'm not optimistic. Let's see what happens at the conventions."

"More diversity among convention delegates will mean that GOP political leaders will finally be able to vote for what they feel is right and in the best interest of the larger community - instead being intimidated by vague threats of retribution 'at the convention' if they don't side with right-wing conspiracy theorists, racists and anti-government mobs."

"The quantitative analysis will soon show what we've already heard from the qualitative anecdotal evidence - the moderates have taken back the Republican party."

"Yes, but we still need to get rid of the caucus system or within a few years it will go right back to mainly the extremists participating."

"Kudos to Thomas Wright and the GOP for their efforts to get people out! Caucuses were better organized than ever!"

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Respondents include - 

Fred Adams, Stuart Adams, Jess Agraz, Scott Anderson, Patrice Arent, Bruce Baird, Tom Barberi, Heather Barney, Steve Barth, Jeff Bell, Tom Berggren, Mike Bertelsen, Ron Bigelow, Rob Bishop, Laura Black, Jim Bradley, Ralph Brown, Ken Bullock, Chris Bleak, Curt Bramble, Ralph Brown, Aaron Browning, Dave Buhler, Ken Bullock, Ric Cantrell, Maura Carabello, Rebecca Chavez-Houck, Kay Christensen, David Clark, Thomas Clay, Peter Corroon, Fred Cox, Lew Cramer, Gene Davis, Richard Davis, Brad Daw, Alan Dayton, Margaret Dayton, Mike Deaver, Brad, Dee, Joseph Demma, John Dougall, Randy Dryer, Donald Dunn, Becky Edwards, Scott Ericson, Jessica Fawson, Janice Fisher, Wendy Fisher, Lorie Fowlke, Ronald Fox, Jordan Garn, Luke Garrott, Dave Gessel, Natalie Gochnour, Robert Grow, Karen Hale, David Hansen, Neil Hansen, Joe Hatch, Jeff Hartley, Deidre Henderson, Lyle Hillyard, Randy Horiuchi, Ben Horsley, Bruce Hough, Scott Howell, Miriam Hyde, Allison Isom, Eric Jergensen, Mike Jerman, Roger Johnson, Michael Jolley, Gordon Jones, Leslie Jones, Kirk Jowers, Brian King, Scott Konopasek, Chris Kyler, Fred Lampropoulos, Douglas Larson, David Litvack, Larry Lunt, Matt Lyon, Ben McAdams, Gayle McKeachnie, JT Martin, Jason Mathis, Karen Mayne, Derek Miller, Rob Miller, Ethan Millard, Brett Millburn, Karen Morgan, Mike Mower, Holly Mullen, Wayne Niederhauser, Mike Noel, Ralph Okerlund, James Olsen, Val Oveson, Scott Parson, Kelly Patterson, Frank Pignanelli, Jason Powers, Joe Pyrah, Mike Reberg, Jill Remington Love, Lauren Richards, Holly Richardson, Robin Riggs, James Roberts, Luz Robles, Ross Romero, Don Savage, Bryan Schott, Jay Seegmiller, Patrick Shea, Randy Shumway, Soren Simonsen, Jeremy Slaughter, Carol Spackman-Moss, Howard Stephenson, Mike Styler, Todd Taylor, Juliette Tennert, Gary Thorup, Kevin Van Tassell, Royce Van Tassel, Michael Waddoups, Chuck Warren, Christine Watkins, LaVarr Webb, Todd Weiler, Alan West, Ted Wilson, Carl Wimmer, Mike Winder, Thomas Wright