If Barack Obama's approval ratings rise even slightly, Mitt Romney's bid for the White House could be toast.
Ipsos' polling director Clifford Young tells the Washington Examiner if Obama's approval rating stays where it is right now at 47%, there's an 85% chance he wins re-election. If that approval rating rises to 50% or above, his re-election chances rise to 99%.
Young’s model is based on the results of 187 elections in 35 countries. In it, he determines that this year is neither a “change election” or “continuity election,” but a “middling election,” where voters are concerned about the economy and foreign affairs, but also one in which personality and incumbency play a key role. Obama remains personally popular and plans to use his incumbency to campaign for reelection like no other president has.
Typically, said Young, middling elections are also characterized by presidents with approval ratings in the 40 percent to 50 percent range. “If his approval numbers were to hold at this level (47 percent), Obama would have about an 85 percent chance of winning in November. If the winds of political and economic fortune push his approval rating above 50 percentage points, Obama’s chances of winning go to almost 99 percent,” said Young, adding that the prez should get a bounce from improving economic conditions.