Republicans and Democrats are basically in agreement about what will happen in next week's state conventions. Most feel Sen. Orrin Hatch will face a primary election, while Gov. Gary Herbert will not.
(Editor's note: In races with multiple candidates, we left them out of the results if their vote totals were 0%).
| There are ten Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. What do you think is the most likely outcome from the State Republican convention? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| Orrin Hatch wins the nomination outright | 37% | 33% | |
| Dan Liljenquist wins the nomination outright | 2% | 0% | |
| The nomination will go to a primary election | 61% | 67% | |
Some anonymous comments:
"No way anyone walks away with this nomination outright. I would love to see Chris Herrod and Dan Liljenquist in a primary but it will probably be Hatch and Liljenquist."
"It would be great if all Republican voters had a chance to have a voice in this race."
"Looks like Hatch will go to a primary then use his $3 Million to destroy his opponent."
"Ten candidates? Really. What are eight of them smoking?"
"It will be close but getting 60 percent is very difficult."
"This thing is over and anyone who has talked him or herself into a different position is smoking crack. Even Dan knows this is done."
| If the GOP race for U.S. Senate goes to a primary, who are the two likeliest candidates to advance? (Pick two) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| Orrin Hatch | 100% | 97% | |
| Dan Liljenquist | 98% | 100% | |
| Chris Herrod | 0% | 3% | |
| There are three Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate nomination. What do you think is the most likely outcome from the State Democratic convention? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| Pete Ashdown wins the nomination outright | 25% | 27% | |
| Scott Howell wins the nomination outright | 16% | 35% | |
| The nomination will go to a primary election | 59% | 38% | |
Some anonymous comments:
"Ashdown is the candidate most likely to win broad public support in Utah. That said, he'll still lose to whichever Republican candidate ends up on the ballot."
"With Mitt on the ticket, does it really matter?"
"Look for the Dems to shoot themselves in the foot by being indecisive with two pretty good candidates. Electability should be their main concern."
"Who cares?"
| There are six Republican candidates for Governor. What do you think is the most likely outcome from the State Republican convention? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| Gary Herbert wins the nomination outright | 95% | 70% | |
| David Kirkham wins the nomination outright | 0% | 3% | |
| The nomination will go to a primary election | 5% | 27% | |
Some anonymous comments:
"The candidates challenging Gov. Herbert are a joke. You don't win an election by trying to convince delegates that Utah is really a mess like California when it just isn't."
"There is no logical reason to get rid of a seasoned and popular governor."
"Philpot is the closest to Herbert and even he is still miles away. As long as he keeps aligning himself with the crazies in the far right of the Republican party, this is what will happen."
"Gary will mop the floor with his opponents."
"All of Governor Herbert's opponents are weak candidates. There will not be a primary."
"No way this goes to a primary. The delegates are wary of challengers thanks to FreedomWorks."
| If the GOP race for Governor goes to a primary, who are the two likeliest candidates to advance? (Pick two) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| Gary Herbert | 100% | 96% | |
| Morgan Philpot | 65% | 62% | |
| Ken Sumsion | 4% | 12% | |
| David Kirkham | 25% | 23% | |
| Lane Ronnow | 2% | 0% | |
| William Skokos | 2% | 0% | |
| There are eleven Republican candidates for the 2nd Congressional district nomination. What do you think is the most likely outcome from the State Republican convention? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| David Clark wins the nomination outright | 16% | 31% | |
| The nomination will go to a primary election | 84% | 69% | |
Some anonymous comments:
"No way does any one candidate get 60%. There will be MANY rounds of voting on this one."
| If the GOP race for the 2nd Congressional district goes to a primary, who are the two likeliest candidates to advance? (Pick two) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| David Clark | 93% | 89% | |
| Chris Stewart | 86% | 41% | |
| Cherylin Eagar | 7% | 37% | |
| Jason Buck | 7% | 11% | |
| Howard Wallack | 4% | 0% | |
| Bob Feuhr | 2% | 15% | |
| There are five Republican candidates for the 4th Congressional district nomination. What do you think is the most likely outcome from the State Republican convention? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| Carl Wimmer wins the nomination outright | 3% | 10% | |
| Stephen Sandstrom wins the nomination outright | 0% | 3% | |
| Mia Love wins the nomination outright | 15% | 3% | |
| The nomination will go to a primary election | 82% | 84% | |
Some anonymous comments:
"
| If the GOP race for the 4th Congressional district goes to a primary, who are the two likeliest candidates to advance? (Pick two) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| Mia Love | 95% | 79% | |
| Carl Wimmer | 83% | 79% | |
| Stephen Sandstrom | 22% | 32% | |
Some anonymous comments:
"Why achieve victory and make history by picking a young, energetic, inspiring, conservative black woman to run against Matheson when we could pick an underfunded, uninspiring, pudgy, middle-aged white guy like we did in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010?"
"Primary for sure."
"Why Wimmer has any traction is the great mystery of this cycle. Let's hope Mia Love ultimately prevails or Matheson will walk away with this...again."
"Cantor, Ryan, and the rest of the D.C. GOP establishment will dump money into Love's campaign. Sandstrom will stop spending his own money in early June, only to realize he doesn't have a clue how to fund raise."
"While Herriman residents may love "The Wimmer" most of Utah and the new 4th district is embarrassed by his self aggrandizing antics. He is Chaffetz 2.0 and will lose to Matheson in a cycle where Republicans should dominate statewide. Mia Love is the best chance for R's to captures this seat."
"Mia has a clear advantage here. She is everything Carl is not and so different in Utah politics it will most likely translate into more money, more name recognition, more votes."
| There are two Republican candidates for the Attorney General. What do you think is the most likely outcome from the State Republican convention? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | ||
| John Swallow wins the nomination outright | 31% | 45% | |
| Sean Reyes wins the nomination outright | 5% | 0% | |
| The nomination will go to a primary election | 64% | 55% | |
Some anonymous comments:
"John Swallow's campaign smacks of cronyism as the 'appointed heir' to Shurtleff's throne. Its a big turnoff for delegates. Delegates don't like being told who to vote for."
"Swallow's connections with the Legislature make me nervous, I hope Reyes prevails. The legislature doesn't need the extra cheerleaders in the AG office."
"They both have their downfalls. Reyes seems too eager for the job, and Swallow already thinks he's attorney general. It seems like he thinks this is his reelection."
"I think John Swallow will win it outright, but can't make myself hit that button due to the schmoozy slime factor."
Respondents include -
Fred Adams, Stuart Adams, Jess Agraz, Scott Anderson, Patrice Arent, Bruce Baird, Tom Barberi, Heather Barney, Steve Barth, Jeff Bell, Tom Berggren, Mike Bertelsen, Ron Bigelow, Rob Bishop, Laura Black, Jim Bradley, Ralph Brown, Ken Bullock, Chris Bleak, Curt Bramble, Ralph Brown, Aaron Browning, Dave Buhler, Ken Bullock, Ric Cantrell, Maura Carabello, Rebecca Chavez-Houck, Kay Christensen, David Clark, Thomas Clay, Peter Corroon, Fred Cox, Lew Cramer, Gene Davis, Richard Davis, Brad Daw, Alan Dayton, Margaret Dayton, Mike Deaver, Brad, Dee, Joseph Demma, John Dougall, Randy Dryer, Donald Dunn, Becky Edwards, Scott Ericson, Jessica Fawson, Janice Fisher, Wendy Fisher, Lorie Fowlke, Ronald Fox, Adam Gardiner, Jordan Garn, Luke Garrott, Dave Gessel, Natalie Gochnour, Robert Grow, Karen Hale, David Hansen, Neil Hansen, Joe Hatch, Jeff Hartley, Deidre Henderson, Lyle Hillyard, Randy Horiuchi, Ben Horsley, Bruce Hough, Scott Howell, Miriam Hyde, Allison Isom, Eric Jergensen, Mike Jerman, Roger Johnson, Michael Jolley, Gordon Jones, Leslie Jones, Kirk Jowers, Brian King, Scott Konopasek, Chris Kyler, Fred Lampropoulos, Douglas Larson, David Litvack, Larry Lunt, Matt Lyon, Ben McAdams, Gayle McKeachnie, JT Martin, Jason Mathis, Karen Mayne, Derek Miller, Rob Miller, Ethan Millard, Brett Millburn, Karen Morgan, Mike Mower, Holly Mullen, Wayne Niederhauser, Mike Noel, Ralph Okerlund, James Olsen, Val Oveson, Scott Parson, Kelly Patterson, Frank Pignanelli, Jason Powers, Joe Pyrah, Mike Reberg, Jill Remington Love, Lauren Richards, Holly Richardson, Robin Riggs, James Roberts, Luz Robles, Ross Romero, Don Savage, Bryan Schott, Jay Seegmiller, Patrick Shea, Randy Shumway, Soren Simonsen, Jeremy Slaughter, Carol Spackman-Moss, Howard Stephenson, Mike Styler, Todd Taylor, Juliette Tennert, Gary Thorup, Kevin Van Tassell, Royce Van Tassel, Michael Waddoups, Chuck Warren, Christine Watkins, LaVarr Webb, Todd Weiler, Alan West, Ted Wilson, Carl Wimmer, Mike Winder, Thomas Wright
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