Hatch vs. Liljenquist; Reyes vs. Swallow
by Bryan Schott
04/30/2012 | 2989 views | 1 1 comments | 4 4 recommendations | email to a friend | print

Our insiders are of one mind this week, thinking that Orrin Hatch will cruise to an easy win over Dan Liljenquist in June's primary election.



They also think John Swallow's name ID will carry him to a win over Sean Reyes in the battle for Attorney General.

 

Dan Liljenquist forced Orrin Hatch into a primary election at the GOP State Convention. Who do you think is most likely to win in June?

  Republican insiders Democratic insiders UtahPolicy.com readers
Orrin Hatch 77% 91% 75%
Dan Liljenquist 23% 9% 25%

Some anonymous comments:

"Dan is a smart and very intelligent candidate. Unfortunately, he does not have the one thing Hatch has which is political clout. In DC that is much more important than it was 36 years ago."



"Tough to beat 36 years of familiarity in a primary. Dan's performance in debates and at the convention is admirable and impressive."



"With Mitt Romney's approval rating in Utah and his message to Utah that he needs Sen. Hatch to serve as the Senate Finance Committee Chair, Sen. Hatch just needs to run TV/Radio ads of Mitt Romney's endorsement to win."



"Dan can't match Hatch's funding or name recognition."



"Dan's campaign is on life support. Holly Richardson is a blogger, not a campaign manager."



"That's like saying would you rather have a fork in the eye or a fork in the neck. Go with the devil you know...you know."



"If Liljenquist could not do better than slightly over 40% at the convention which was made up of a disproportionately high percentage of tea-partying, rabidly anti-Hatch extreme right-wingers, he will fail miserably in the primary. "



"Sen. Hatch is too skilled at delivering his message to Utahn's. Dan's best chance for a miracle was at convention."



"With Romney at the top of the ticket and Hatch's organization, he is a shoe-in to win."



"Hatch's money pile is a mountain to climb, but it's been done before. The contrast between old and new couldn't be clearer. But Utah has a soft spot for elder statesmen."



"I think Dan will make it closer than many think, but Hatch will make it. And he'll owe Mitt Romney BIG TIME."



"Hatch has successfully run from his record so far, why would that change now. Also, he and Mitt are besties, and Mitt is so dreamy and his wife works so hard and ... where was I? Oh yeah, Hatch. Who was he running against again?"



"Elect me again so I can do all the things in my seventh term I failed to do in my first six!" isn't much of a campaign slogan in my book."



"Liljenquist is a strong candidate and it will be a shame if he forges an unholy alliance with Freedom Works that will turn off regular Republicans and will put a label on Liljenquist that could hurt his political future."



"The candidate with the highest name ID and most money wins primaries which is why we need to preserve the caucus and convention system as the first steps in the nominating process."



"B'orrin Orrin has too much money but he will take a lot of lumps and bruises to prevail."



"Dan will do better than some may think, but short of a scandal, Hatch's money and the potential for the Finance Committee Chair, Hatch wins."



"Dan will put up a good fight, but in the end, voters will go with the senior statesman that they know rather than the young firebrand that they don't yet know."



"Hatch wins this 65-35. Liljenquist was beyond lucky this past Saturday."


Sean Reyes and John Swallow will face off in a primary election for Attorney General in June. Who do you think is most likely to win?

  Republican insiders Democratic insiders UtahPolicy.com readers
Sean Reyes 31% 49% 36%
John Swallow 69% 51% 64%

Some anonymous comments:

"Truly anyone's race, John has name ID and Sean has money."



"Had the vote at convention been after Shurtleff's comments at the convention, his endorsement would have been an anchor."



"Swallow loses in conventions, and wins in primaries."



"I'm concerned about undue influence from the legislature over the attorney general's office. We need Reyes."



"Sean Reyes has continuously practiced as a lawyer. John Swallow is riding on Mark Shurtleff's coattails."



"Shurtleff's racist remark in the convention will come back to bite Swallow just like it did Wimmer."



"I think people see Swallow for what his is: an ambitious guy who wants badly to be a career politician and will run for anything he thinks he can win."



"I haven't heard much if any campaigning for John Swallow other than at the convention."



"Swallow's name recognition from his days in the legislature will help him slightly."



"Poor John. This will be the third primary election defeat of his political career."



"You know, for a guy who has the same campaign record as Morgan Philpot, Swallow sure does a good job of hanging around. He'll probably win this one, because he has establishment support, a ton of money and a smile that can curdle milk. Well, not so much because of that last one."



"Swallow is too eager, but has the name so he'll take it. Step one to winning is getting rid of his Batman symbol as his logo."



"Experience and maturity will trump youth and exuberance."


Respondents include - 

Fred Adams, Stuart Adams, Jess Agraz, Scott Anderson, Patrice Arent, Bruce Baird, Tom Barberi, Heather Barney, Steve Barth, Jeff Bell, Tom Berggren, Mike Bertelsen, Ron Bigelow, Rob Bishop, Laura Black, Jim Bradley, Ralph Brown, Ken Bullock, Chris Bleak, Curt Bramble, Ralph Brown, Aaron Browning, Dave Buhler, Ken Bullock, Ric Cantrell, Maura Carabello, Rebecca Chavez-Houck, Kay Christensen, David Clark, Thomas Clay, Peter Corroon, Fred Cox, Lew Cramer, Gene Davis, Richard Davis, Brad Daw, Alan Dayton, Margaret Dayton, Mike Deaver, Brad, Dee, Joseph Demma, John Dougall, Randy Dryer, Donald Dunn, Becky Edwards, Scott Ericson, Jessica Fawson, Janice Fisher, Wendy Fisher, Lorie Fowlke, Ronald Fox, Adam Gardiner, Jordan Garn, Luke Garrott, Dave Gessel, Natalie Gochnour, Robert Grow, Karen Hale, David Hansen, Neil Hansen, Joe Hatch, Jeff Hartley, Deidre Henderson, Lyle Hillyard, Randy Horiuchi, Ben Horsley, Bruce Hough, Scott Howell, Miriam Hyde, Allison Isom, Eric Jergensen, Mike Jerman, Roger Johnson, Michael Jolley, Gordon Jones, Leslie Jones, Kirk Jowers, Brian King, Scott Konopasek, Chris Kyler, Fred Lampropoulos, Douglas Larson, David Litvack, Larry Lunt, Matt Lyon, Ben McAdams, Gayle McKeachnie, JT Martin, Jason Mathis, Karen Mayne, Derek Miller, Rob Miller, Ethan Millard, Brett Millburn, Karen Morgan, Mike Mower, Holly Mullen, Wayne Niederhauser, Mike Noel, Ralph Okerlund, James Olsen, Val Oveson, Scott Parson, Kelly Patterson, Frank Pignanelli, Jason Powers, Joe Pyrah, Mike Reberg, Jill Remington Love, Lauren Richards, Holly Richardson, Robin Riggs, James Roberts, Luz Robles, Ross Romero, Don Savage, Bryan Schott, Jay Seegmiller, Patrick Shea, Randy Shumway, Soren Simonsen, Jeremy Slaughter, Carol Spackman-Moss, Howard Stephenson, Mike Styler, Todd Taylor, Juliette Tennert, Gary Thorup, Kevin Van Tassell, Royce Van Tassel, Michael Waddoups, Chuck Warren, Christine Watkins, LaVarr Webb, Todd Weiler, Alan West, Ted Wilson, Carl Wimmer, Mike Winder, Thomas Wright

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May 07, 2012
I laughed at the misinformation machine, as if here makes any difference. Facts that can be verified on the web- 1- John Swallow has won every Primary he has ran, 2-Reyes CampMgr is the same CM John beat last time, 3- This time Swallow won at convention as well, 4- Swallow has money & Reyes is on fumes, 5- Swallow's campaign records exceeds Philpot.
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Ten Things You Need to Know for Friday
by Bryan Schott
May 24, 2013 | 4538 views | 0 0 comments | 2 2 recommendations | email to a friend | print
Countdown: There are 166 days to the 2013 municipal elections, 249 days until the start of the 2014 Legislature, 525 days until the 2014 midterm elections and 962 days until the 2016 Iowa Caucuses. 

An analysis says expanding Medicaid coverage will save Utah more than $130 million and would give health insurance to 123,000 residents [Tribune].

A new report ranks Utah #1 for economic outlook next year [Utah Policy, Tribune].

House Majority Leader Brad Dee goes on a European vacation with three lobbyists, but Dee insists the trip was above board because everybody paid their own way and they didn’t discuss politics [Tribune].

Former Attorney General Mark Shurtleff is caught on tape offering to get $2 million for Utah Businessman Darl McBride if he would shut down a website critical of another Utah businessman. That money was to come from a third Utah businessman who was in trouble with the Attorney General’s office [Tribune].

Former Legislator and current blogger Holly Richardson says she’s had enough with the “culture of corruption” permeating the Attorney General’s office [Holly on the Hill].

Sen. Orrin Hatch wants to hear from Utahns who think they have been inappropriately targeted by the IRS as part of his investigation into misconduct by the agency [Tribune].

Kennecott lays off 100 workers because of the massive landslide at their Bingham Canyon Mine [Tribune, Deseret News].

The Boy Scouts vote to allow gay members in their ranks [Deseret News].

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman launches a new political action committee to support Republicans who share his point of view [Tribune].

Gov. Gary Herbert says he is confident the state can work out a deal to avoid taxing the electricity used by the new National Security Agency data center at Camp Williams [Tribune].
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