Our insiders are of one mind this week, thinking that Orrin Hatch will cruise to an easy win over Dan Liljenquist in June's primary election.
They also think John Swallow's name ID will carry him to a win over Sean Reyes in the battle for Attorney General.
| Dan Liljenquist forced Orrin Hatch into a primary election at the GOP State Convention. Who do you think is most likely to win in June? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | UtahPolicy.com readers | |
| Orrin Hatch | 77% | 91% | 75% |
| Dan Liljenquist | 23% | 9% | 25% |
Some anonymous comments:
"Dan is a smart and very intelligent candidate. Unfortunately, he does not have the one thing Hatch has which is political clout. In DC that is much more important than it was 36 years ago."
"Tough to beat 36 years of familiarity in a primary. Dan's performance in debates and at the convention is admirable and impressive."
"With Mitt Romney's approval rating in Utah and his message to Utah that he needs Sen. Hatch to serve as the Senate Finance Committee Chair, Sen. Hatch just needs to run TV/Radio ads of Mitt Romney's endorsement to win."
"Dan can't match Hatch's funding or name recognition."
"Dan's campaign is on life support. Holly Richardson is a blogger, not a campaign manager."
"That's like saying would you rather have a fork in the eye or a fork in the neck. Go with the devil you know...you know."
"If Liljenquist could not do better than slightly over 40% at the convention which was made up of a disproportionately high percentage of tea-partying, rabidly anti-Hatch extreme right-wingers, he will fail miserably in the primary. "
"Sen. Hatch is too skilled at delivering his message to Utahn's. Dan's best chance for a miracle was at convention."
"With Romney at the top of the ticket and Hatch's organization, he is a shoe-in to win."
"Hatch's money pile is a mountain to climb, but it's been done before. The contrast between old and new couldn't be clearer. But Utah has a soft spot for elder statesmen."
"I think Dan will make it closer than many think, but Hatch will make it. And he'll owe Mitt Romney BIG TIME."
"Hatch has successfully run from his record so far, why would that change now. Also, he and Mitt are besties, and Mitt is so dreamy and his wife works so hard and ... where was I? Oh yeah, Hatch. Who was he running against again?"
"Elect me again so I can do all the things in my seventh term I failed to do in my first six!" isn't much of a campaign slogan in my book."
"Liljenquist is a strong candidate and it will be a shame if he forges an unholy alliance with Freedom Works that will turn off regular Republicans and will put a label on Liljenquist that could hurt his political future."
"The candidate with the highest name ID and most money wins primaries which is why we need to preserve the caucus and convention system as the first steps in the nominating process."
"B'orrin Orrin has too much money but he will take a lot of lumps and bruises to prevail."
"Dan will do better than some may think, but short of a scandal, Hatch's money and the potential for the Finance Committee Chair, Hatch wins."
"Dan will put up a good fight, but in the end, voters will go with the senior statesman that they know rather than the young firebrand that they don't yet know."
"Hatch wins this 65-35. Liljenquist was beyond lucky this past Saturday."
| Sean Reyes and John Swallow will face off in a primary election for Attorney General in June. Who do you think is most likely to win? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican insiders | Democratic insiders | UtahPolicy.com readers | |
| Sean Reyes | 31% | 49% | 36% |
| John Swallow | 69% | 51% | 64% |
Some anonymous comments:
"Truly anyone's race, John has name ID and Sean has money."
"Had the vote at convention been after Shurtleff's comments at the convention, his endorsement would have been an anchor."
"Swallow loses in conventions, and wins in primaries."
"I'm concerned about undue influence from the legislature over the attorney general's office. We need Reyes."
"Sean Reyes has continuously practiced as a lawyer. John Swallow is riding on Mark Shurtleff's coattails."
"Shurtleff's racist remark in the convention will come back to bite Swallow just like it did Wimmer."
"I think people see Swallow for what his is: an ambitious guy who wants badly to be a career politician and will run for anything he thinks he can win."
"I haven't heard much if any campaigning for John Swallow other than at the convention."
"Swallow's name recognition from his days in the legislature will help him slightly."
"Poor John. This will be the third primary election defeat of his political career."
"You know, for a guy who has the same campaign record as Morgan Philpot, Swallow sure does a good job of hanging around. He'll probably win this one, because he has establishment support, a ton of money and a smile that can curdle milk. Well, not so much because of that last one."
"Swallow is too eager, but has the name so he'll take it. Step one to winning is getting rid of his Batman symbol as his logo."
"Experience and maturity will trump youth and exuberance."
Respondents include -
Fred Adams, Stuart Adams, Jess Agraz, Scott Anderson, Patrice Arent, Bruce Baird, Tom Barberi, Heather Barney, Steve Barth, Jeff Bell, Tom Berggren, Mike Bertelsen, Ron Bigelow, Rob Bishop, Laura Black, Jim Bradley, Ralph Brown, Ken Bullock, Chris Bleak, Curt Bramble, Ralph Brown, Aaron Browning, Dave Buhler, Ken Bullock, Ric Cantrell, Maura Carabello, Rebecca Chavez-Houck, Kay Christensen, David Clark, Thomas Clay, Peter Corroon, Fred Cox, Lew Cramer, Gene Davis, Richard Davis, Brad Daw, Alan Dayton, Margaret Dayton, Mike Deaver, Brad, Dee, Joseph Demma, John Dougall, Randy Dryer, Donald Dunn, Becky Edwards, Scott Ericson, Jessica Fawson, Janice Fisher, Wendy Fisher, Lorie Fowlke, Ronald Fox, Adam Gardiner, Jordan Garn, Luke Garrott, Dave Gessel, Natalie Gochnour, Robert Grow, Karen Hale, David Hansen, Neil Hansen, Joe Hatch, Jeff Hartley, Deidre Henderson, Lyle Hillyard, Randy Horiuchi, Ben Horsley, Bruce Hough, Scott Howell, Miriam Hyde, Allison Isom, Eric Jergensen, Mike Jerman, Roger Johnson, Michael Jolley, Gordon Jones, Leslie Jones, Kirk Jowers, Brian King, Scott Konopasek, Chris Kyler, Fred Lampropoulos, Douglas Larson, David Litvack, Larry Lunt, Matt Lyon, Ben McAdams, Gayle McKeachnie, JT Martin, Jason Mathis, Karen Mayne, Derek Miller, Rob Miller, Ethan Millard, Brett Millburn, Karen Morgan, Mike Mower, Holly Mullen, Wayne Niederhauser, Mike Noel, Ralph Okerlund, James Olsen, Val Oveson, Scott Parson, Kelly Patterson, Frank Pignanelli, Jason Powers, Joe Pyrah, Mike Reberg, Jill Remington Love, Lauren Richards, Holly Richardson, Robin Riggs, James Roberts, Luz Robles, Ross Romero, Don Savage, Bryan Schott, Jay Seegmiller, Patrick Shea, Randy Shumway, Soren Simonsen, Jeremy Slaughter, Carol Spackman-Moss, Howard Stephenson, Mike Styler, Todd Taylor, Juliette Tennert, Gary Thorup, Kevin Van Tassell, Royce Van Tassel, Michael Waddoups, Chuck Warren, Christine Watkins, LaVarr Webb, Todd Weiler, Alan West, Ted Wilson, Carl Wimmer, Mike Winder, Thomas Wright


