A new Gallup survey finds 58% of Americans think Obama is going to win, which is up 2-points from a similar poll in May. The number of Americans who think Mitt Romney will win remains steady at 36%.
While most Democrats think Obama will win, and most Republicans think Romney will emerge victorious, the difference is independent voters. 58% of those predict Obama is going to win re-election.
The poll shows Romney hasn't done a very good job convincing independent voters that he is likely to win in November.
The implications of this "expectation" measure on voter behavior and the election outcome are not clear. At this point, a significantly higher percentage of Republicans say they will vote for Romney than believe he will be able to beat Obama in November. These partisan views on the part of Republicans that their candidate is the underdog could motivate them to campaign for their candidate and get out and vote, or could be discouraging and end up suppressing their vote. Similarly, Democrats' confidence that their candidate will win could encourage them to get out and vote to make sure that is a reality, or could cause complacency and lower their turnout percentage.
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