Some anonymous comments:
Some polls are biased. It depends on what questions are asked and how they are worded. I doubt the national polls like the Gallup poll would be biased, it has a reputation to maintain. The Fox News Poll would be biased towards Romney.
Polls are only as accurate as the questions asked, the types of people selected to be polled, and the size of the sample taken. None of the polls, national or local, meet all of these criteria sufficiently to provide reliable data that can statistically predict what will happen on November 6th. In the end, they're fodder to be spun as needed.
There are many factors affecting accuracy, and they change somewhat almost daily, and it depends on how the questions are worded
Most polls are wrong especially Dan Jones. However Dan Jones polls are usually skewed towards the incumbent based on how they do the poll, however with Mia in the lead I took notice though.
Actually, both polls may be accurate - and it is just politics to disparage polls you don't like. In reality, the uncertainty in polling numbers is not often referenced when the polls are cited by politicians, and that makes the results unreliable, if not actually misleading. The pollsters know and respect the statistics - the politicians tend to neglect them.
There may be some limited value to these polls, but the real one is on November 6th
The further from the source, the more it can be twisted
Polls can always be skewed and shouldn't be seen as a truly reliable benchmark of voter intent.
Define accurate. There is a margin of error in any poll. A poll is a indication of votes at a particular time. I believe people tend to interpret the poll as the way the election will end up. Things change.
A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.
National Polls seem to be based on 2008 election models. Not sure how Dan modeled his polling, but if he did use 2008 models than Mia is actually doing better.
It is all in the question and how it's asked. Push me/ pull!.
If there's anything one can learn from politics is never trust a poll. They're too easily manipulated. I, for one, pay little attention to them, regardless.
You rarely see politicians dismissing polls that show them ahead There's always a check on the polls: the election, as Nate Silver and others have pointed out. Some pollsters get closer to the final result than others. Most results aggregate around a final number. Some polls give results that are significantly different. If they end up being wrong, their credibility is tarnished. There's a big incentive for public opinion pollsters to be accurate.
Pollsters and meteorologists are the only people who can be consistently wrong and still stay employed.
Both polls are accurate for their sample. The problem with polls nationally is that they are measuring a percent of all voters instead of making predictions from the swing states. Locally Mia is just winning. Even Jim's body language has changed and he is starting to blame it on the State Leg. Truth is, he should have run in the district he lives in because I think he would have beat Chris Stewart.
The only purpose in a poll is to spur the candidate to work harder. No one knows how a person will vote once in the booth. And I would never tell the truth if asked.
Dan Jones has been an awful pollster for years. But national polls don't even matter, despite them being weighted towards Democrats. We work state to state, not by popular vote.
Polls are a snap-shot in time with a limited number of voters. Polls are usually somewhat accurate but they have a margin of error, and things can change quickly.
I think it's ridiculous to suppose that polling firms who live and die by their reputations would be unaware of systematic Democratic biases in their polls, and that only a handful of conservative bloggers know the real truth. It will be interesting to watch what happens in coming weeks.
I have great confidence in Dan Jones' polls and it is only one poll. There are numerous national polls and on any given day they vary by as much as 10 points, so by definition they can't all be accurate. And of course, we will never know if an October 3 poll is accurate or not will we?
This election is all about who actually shows up on November 6. While Obama is likely ahead, it is yet to be seen if his supporters will come out and vote. My money is still on Romney.
Polls are snapshots. Remember the polls that showed Mayor Becker in 3rd place? Yeah ...
Polling has become an enterprise of campaigns and affiliates. Polls can no longer be trusted as reliable gauges, rather they are crafted and interpreted to meet a strategic end, even when conducted by news media.
Play to the numbers but don't admit defeat till the last vote is certified.
Dan Jones is notoriously inaccurate. His poll is probably more favorable towards Matheson than the election will be.
Dan Jones and Assoc. Polls are about as accurate as a Ryan Leaf hail Mary
Polls are a picture in time and do not always accurately predict the eventual winner. However, they are generally a good indicator. Both Romney and Matheson will need to improve if the want to win their respective races.
Both polls are accurate. The Republicans in Utah have finally figured out their secret weapon. Women can win in these tough races. They have learned that it's not the party of white attorney men. I still believe the Matheson / Love race is too close to call and I believe that Obama has it in the bag.
As any politician will avow, the only poll that counts is the one in November.
It all has to do with methodology. Nothing has been shown in polling regarding enthusiasm gap which would suggest Democrats would turn up in greater numbers then Republicans on Election Day. Comparing 2012 trends and turn-out to 2008 is a pipe dream. Seems like national news outlets are fudging numbers.
When I don't know an answer I will say so. I have no idea what to think about the polls...I'm afraid I will have to wait until the people actually vote.
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