The sort of growth projection calculated by Koltko-Rivera contains a sophomoric error common among the mathematically illiterate. It's also based on faulty data.

First of all, the blind application of exponential growth rates over a time period greater than 100 years is unsupportable. Even in grade school we learned the dangers of large extrapolations, and the problem is even more acute when extrapolating with exponential functions.

Second: Real populations cannot grow sustainably with any exponential rate. Initial growth rates are often approximately exponential, but inevitably there are sources of population loss that increase with increasing population, leading to leveling off and quasi equilibrium. While simple minded social scientists might extrapolate 100 years into the future using an exponential curve fit, a far more applicable approach is to apply least-squares regression using the Logistic curve. See, for example, the following discussion:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

In fact, when examining actual LDS population figures, the logistic curve has a far better fit coefficient than the exponential curve. An analysis of the Logistic function to LDS population figures shows that LDS population (world wide) will stabilize at just a bit over 30 million. See, for example, the analysis at the following link:

http://www.belnapfamily.org/brentjbelnap/institute/Anderson_Church_Growth_Rates.pdf

Sorry, dear Mormons -- you aren't going to be taking over the world anytime soon. Rather, you will remain a marginal religion with a checkered history that you will find increasingly difficult to keep hidden.

Finally, it's worth noting that the analysis has been conducted using Mormon membership figures -- yet the Mormon Church is known to lie about those figures. For example, insiders at the LDS Church office building confirm that the Mormon Church continues to count people even after they formally resign, and that the number of formal resignations is approaching 1.5 million. Additionally, the Mormon Church counts as members people who leave and join other religions. Independent surveys consistently show that the number of self-reporting Mormons in the US and other countries is only half (or less) than the Mormon-reported membership. See, for example, the following link:

http://exmormon.org/d6/drupal/Mormon-Church-falsifies-US-membership-numbers

If the *actual* membership figures are used, the LDS Church membership is already stagnant, and possibly falling.

So much for the stone cut out of the mountain.

Because your article's title ends with a question mark, we can tell the answer is "NO!".

This will be in part because the member that was allowed to run for president is a failure as a human being. He has defined the religion, the identity of membership. Nobody wants to be like him, or be close to him, or close to others who think like he does.

Growth projections like these pique interest and promote genuine inquiry. They hit the target, but miss the bulls eye. There is no contest to see whose church is or will become the most populous. There is, however, endless labor by our Divine Creator to offer and righteously persuade each one of his children (that would be every human soul) to individually learn of, love, and live his Gospel of Peace. I'm certain that he does not think in grand numbers of people, but in the grand influence His Truth has in each individual's life. The even more awesome number, that is currently incalculable, is just how many of the countless inhabitants of this earth will each enjoy a measure of God's Glory following this sojourn in life. There are precious few who will not find themselves then living in one or another degree of glory commensurate with their own faithful choices made while living here. It is immensely sobering to consider the abundance of life our Father in Heaven fervently desires for each of us...individually...without regard to the totality of the names on the roll "up yonder".