Poll: Mike Lee Heading to a Big Win over Misty Snow in November

Mile Lee Misty Snow 03So much for the Bernie Sanders revolution in Utah. Democratic Senate nominee Misty Snow has failed to move the needle among Utah voters and is headed to a crushing defeat in November.

A new UtahPolicy.com survey finds Snow trails Lee by an incredible 39-points. Lee gets 61% in our survey while Snow is at 22%. Independent candidate Bill Barron nets 5% while Independent American nominee Stoney Fonua is at 2%. 10% say they’re undecided.

Snow jumped into the race after being inspired by the presidential candidacy of Bernie Sanders. She has patterned her campaign and many of her policy proposals after those of the Vermont Senator who won the Democratic vote in Utah in March’s election. Snow also has been endorsed by Sanders’ political organization, “Our Revolution.”

Despite all that, it is evident Utahns are not buying what Snow, and by extension Sanders, is selling.

Five Thirty Eight’s projection gives Mike Lee a 99.8% chance of winning in November.


Lee’s lead has expanded since July when Lee led Snow by 35-points. During that span, Snow has consistently scored just 22 or 23-percent in our survey. If that total holds, Snow will set a new low mark for electoral futility by a Democratic Senate candidate in Utah. The previous bottom was set by Dan Berman who got just 25.% in 1980.

Snow had a surprisingly good performance in her one and only debate with Lee, but that didn’t move the needle at all since most of our survey was completed after the debate.

Lee gets support from 88% of Republicans. 2% of that group say they’ll vote for Snow. 3% of GOP voters pick Barron while 6% are undecided.

Snow wins the backing of 3/4ths of Democrats. She needs to do a lot better among that group if she is going to finish at or about 33% of the vote, which she has admitted is her ultimate goal for this campaign.

Independent voters break for Lee by 30-points, 53-23%.

Lee has a broad base of support across nearly every demographic we surveyed.

  • Men pick Lee 62-22%
  • Women prefer Lee 61-21%
  • Lee wins millennial voters (18-24) by a 42-19% margin. Lee also picks up the support of voters between 25-34 by a 48-24% margin. That’s a major feather in his cap as Snow has targeted these two groups in her race, repeatedly saying she is running to be the “voice of her generation” in Congress.

The only groups that prefer Snow over Lee are Democrats and voters who say they are “somewhat” or “very liberal.”

Lee wins a clear majority of LDS voters and Protestants, while Snow gets support from Catholic voters.

The Dan Jones & Associates survey was conducted October 12-18, 2016 among 818 likely Utah voters with a margin of error +/-3.43%