There’s nearly zero chance that Utah Democrats will break the Republican supermajorities on Utah’s Capitol Hill, but there are 11 races you should keep your eye on election night.
We analyzed the partisan voter breakdown for each district provided to UtahPolicy.com by L2, a political data organization. You’ll notice their numbers are different from the Utah state voter file, because the names and addresses are scrubbed against a number of databases including national change of address and social security to make sure those voters are still alive or living where they say they are, which provides for much more accurate numbers.
We picked 11 Utah legislative races (10 House, one Senate) that we felt could be close contests this year. Some are rematches from 2014. Others are open seats or are targeted by one or both parties.
House District 22 – Susan Duckworth (D) vs. Jamie White (R)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 32.7%
Democrat – 15.9%
Duckworth is perennially thought to be one of the most endangered Democrats on the Hill, yet she keeps on winning.
Democrats have to hope for a depressed turnout among Republicans while attracting a sizeable number of voters who are either independent or registered to other parties. Duckworth won by just 520 votes in 2014.
House District 30 – Open Seat – Mike Winder (R) vs. Frank Bedolla (D)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 34.3%
Democrat – 16.4%
The Republicans held this seat by just 47 votes in 2014. The incumbent, Fred Cox, was ousted by former West Valley City Mayor Mike Winder at the GOP convention.
Party insiders on both sides expect Winder to have a much easier time keeping this seat than Cox. However, if independents show up big for Bedolla, he could steal a victory.
House District 31 – Sophia DiCaro (R) vs. Elizabeth Weight (D)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 24.5%
Democrat – 16.4%
Even though DiCaro is considered to be a rising star in Republican circles, she could be in trouble here. The district is hardly a Republican stronghold. Democrat Larry Wiley held the seat until DiCaro beat him in 2012.
Democrat Elizabeth Weight has raised $22,000 so far, which is a good amount for a Democrat. However, DiCaro has pulled in more than double that.
Since 59% of the registered voters in the district are neither Republican or Democrat, turnout will ultimately decide who carries this swing district.
House District 32 – LaVar Christensen (R) vs. Suzanne Harrison (D)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 47.2%
Democrat – 10.3%
Democrats are pouring resources into this race to knock off Christensen, but this is a heavily Republican district, and pulling out the win here would be a minor miracle.
Christensen carried this district in 2012 and 2014 with 67% and 64% of the vote.
The Democratic candidate, Suzanne Harrison has raised more than $65,000 this year and is getting campaign donations from some Republicans. But, since this district is nearly half-Republican and only 10% Democratic, she’s going to need a lot of help.
House District 33 – Craig Hall (R) vs. Peter Tomala (D)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 28.7%
Democrat – 19.5%
Hall has carried this district since 2012 even though it only has a 9-percent Republican advantage. Hall beat Democrat Liz Muniz by 5-points in 2012 and 17-points in 2014.
Tomala is a businessman and a former teacher.
Hall has won many endorsements from labor unions, which should help his bid for a third term, but independent voters will likely prove to be decisive in this district.
House District 34 – Open Seat – Karen Kwan (D) vs. Macade Jensen (R)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 33.7%
Democrat – 17.3%
This seat is open due to the retirement of Rep. Johnny Anderson, and both parties would like to put it in their column this November.
Democrat Karen Kwan is making her second run after losing to Anderson by 7-points in 2014.
Jensen defeated Republican Jack Castellanos in the GOP primary.
House District 44 – Bruce Cutler (R) vs. Christine Passey (D)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 35.2%
Democrat – 15.7%
This is a rematch of 2014 when Cutler defeated Passey by just 53 votes.
Before Cutler eked out a slim victory two years ago, Democrat Tim Cosgrove held the seat for nearly a decade. As a result, Democrats are highly motivated to put this seat back in the blue column.
House District 49 – Robert Spendlove (R) vs. Zach Robinson (D)
Partisan makeup:
Republicans – 45.0%
Democrats – 11.8%
Another rematch from 2014 when Spendlove defeated Robinson by 1,590 votes (13.8%).
House District 53 – Open seat – Logan Wilde (R) vs. Cole Capener (D)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 49.9%
Democrat – 10.6%
Wilde, a Morgan County Councilman, defeated longtime Representative Mel Brown by just eight votes in the GOP primary this year.
This seat should remain in the GOP column because nearly half of all registered voters in the district are Republican.
House District 54 – Open seat – Tim Quinn (R) vs. Rudi Kohler (D)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 41.9%
Democrat – 15.7%
Republican Kraig Powell unexpectedly withdrew from the race in April after his decision to gather signatures to get on the primary ballot threatened to turn into a major issue in this year’s contest.
Powell was one of the more moderate members of the House.
Republicans have the advantage in this district with a 26-point partisan registration gap.
House District 69 – Brad King (D) vs. Christine Watkins (R)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 40.8%
Democrat – 13.8%
This seat has ping-ponged between Republican and Democratic control over the past few years.
King was a former House Minority Leader.
Watkins took over the seat from King as a Democrat in 2008 and won a position in the Democratic House leadership. She was defeated by Republican Jerry Anderson in 2012.
After that loss, Watkins switched her registration to the Republican party.
Watkins ran again for the seat in 2014, but lost at the GOP convention before winning the GOP nomination this year.
Watkins is not getting any financial support from GOP legislators for her bid to return to the House, even though this district is extremely winnable for the GOP.
Senate District 6 – Wayne Harper (R) vs. Celina Milner (D)
Partisan makeup:
Republican – 40.2%
Democrat – 13.0%
Milner nearly defeated Republican Johnny Anderson for a Utah House seat in 2012, and was widely expected to run again in 2014, but she declined.
Milner is now challenging Wayne Harper who carried the district by 21-points in 2012.
Democrats think they have a real shot at this seat despite a 27-point partisan disadvantage.