Are We Headed for a ‘Trump Recession’?

Donald TrumpDonald Trump already has one bit of historical precedent working against him as he prepares to take office. Economic recessions are more common under Republican presidents.

USA Today spoke with economic analyst Sam Stovall who says every Republican president since Teddy Roosevelt oversaw a recession in their first term in office. That makes it more than likely there will be an economic downturn during the next four years.

There are other economic slowdowns that usually appear during Republican administrations, too.

Real GDP growth, a measure of economic activity in the U.S., averaged 3.33% during the 64 years and 16 presidential terms going back to President Truman in the mid-1940s, according to a 2013 research paper by professors of economics Alan Blinderand Mark Watson at Princeton University. With a Republican in the White House, though, the economy’s growth slowed to 2.54%, the economists found. With a Democrat in office, growth jumped to 4.35% on average. A variety of other economic indicators, such as per capital GDP, stock market returns, real wages and the change in the unemployment rate, are also more robust with a Democratic president, the economists found. Unemployment fell by 0.8 percentage points with a Democratic president on average, while it rose 1.1% with a Republican.

 

“The U.S. economy has performed better when the President of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance,” according to the report titled “Presidents and the Economy: A Forensic Investigation.”