The GOP has some serious work to do if they are going to attract Hispanic voters.
A new Gallup survey finds every single age group leaning toward the Democratic party. The only age group where at least half of Hispanics prefer Democrats is between 30 and 49.
There is a little bit of hope, though. Younger Hispanic voters are more likely to self-identify as independent voters than with either party. 53% of those between 18 and 29, and 51% of those between 30 and 49 say they are independents.
As the disproportionately large number of Hispanics who are today younger than 18 reach voting age in the years ahead, they will constitute a larger share of the young voting-age population, and therefore, of the electorate. While young Hispanics of voting age today have an inclination to be politically independent, significantly more identify as Democrats than Republicans, both before and after they are asked about their political leanings. This Democratic orientation is underscored by the fact that more than seven in 10 currently approve of the job President Obama is doing, much higher than his approval rating among the overall population. Assuming that today’s party preference patterns hold in the future, the young voting-age population of the future will thus be more Democratic in its political orientation than is the case today.
The extent to which the increase in the Hispanic proportion of the young adult population pays off for Democratic candidates in actual voting remains to be seen, because Hispanic registration and voter turnout in national elections has historically been significantly lower than that of other segments of the population. For example, the Census Bureau estimated that 48% of the eligible Hispanic electorate voted in the 2012 presidential election, compared with 64% for whites and 66% for blacks.
