‘Political Insiders’ aren’t sure there will be a Democratic ‘wave election’ this year

Democrats enjoy their largest lead on the generic congressional ballot in more than a decade. The last time their lead was this big was in 2006 when Democrats ended up winning control of both the House and the Senate in that year’s midterm elections.

The generic ballot is a poll question that asks voters whether they will vote for Republicans or Democrats for Congress in November. Historically, the generic ballot is a pretty good predictor of how Congressional election will go down in November.

Right now, the Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot sits at a little more than 10 points according to the FiveThirtyEight average of generic ballot polls. The Real Clear Politics average puts the Democratic lead at 11.4%. In 2006, the Democratic lead was a staggering 13-points.

All of the conditions right now seemingly favor a Democratic romp in November. President Trump’s approval rating is flirting with a historical low, and Republicans just passed a tax bill that is one of the least popular (according to polling) pieces of legislation in recent memory.

Democrats need to flip 24 seats in the House and two seats in the Senate to take control. Traditionally, the party that controls the White House loses seats in the midterm elections. Democrats need to defend a large number of seats they control in states that went for Trump in 2016, which makes their prospects in that chamber more difficult.

Our “Political Insiders” are not so sure a political wave is coming in November that will sweep Democrats into control of Congress this November.

– 58% of the Republicans on our panel think the GOP will retain control of both houses of Congress after this year’s elections.

– 29% of Democrats think their party will grab control of both houses, while 36% think the Dems will just win control of the Senate.

– 28% of our readers say Democrats will win control of both houses of Congress, while the same number think Republicans will stay in power.


Selected anonymous comments:

I don’t see the POTUS slowing down on the number people he alienates, which will drive down votes for all Republicans.

Democrats are over deliriously overconfident.

Democrats will pick up a few seats but nothing major. The Democrats have no message other than “Trump is dumb, Trump is bad, more taxes!”

If Trump campaigns for Republicans, it will undoubtedly help the Democrats.

Bush was unpopular in 06 but nowhere close to where Trump will (likely) be in 18. Dems won the House in 06, granted, with a better map. But if it’s D+10 on the general congressional come September? They’ll win. The Senate map is roooough, and I don’t know anyone who could believe that Dems hold ND, WV, MO, IN, and WY while winning AZ and NV.

The Dems winning the House will immediately turn DC into a battleground for the 2020 presidential race.

A strong economy will be in the Dems way. The biggest risk for Republicans? “Steve Bannon” candidates.

Dems will gain some seats but not enough for control.

I think the Democrats are vastly overestimating how likely they are to take the Senate. Even though Doug Jones prevailed in Alabama, they still have to win every single one of their seats and win in both Nevada (achievable) and Arizona (a major stretch, particularly if McSally is the nominee). If they lose so much as one of these races, the best they can realistically hope for in the Senate is 50-50 with Pence breaking a tie. I just think it’s unrealistic to claim that Democrats are going to sweep every single one of the following states: North Dakota, West Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota (twice), Pennsylvania, Virginia, and retain scandal-ridden Menendez’ seat in New Jersey. Even if they do all of that and win all of their relatively safe seats, they still have to defeat an incumbent senator in Nevada and win in Arizona. Let’s remember exactly how red Arizona is. Arizona last elected a Democrat senator in 1988. Before that, you have to go back to 1962. Arizona has gone for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1952 except when it voted to reelect Clinton in 1996, but even then he only got 46% of the vote. Arizona is the land of God, guns, and Goldwater and I just don’t see it going Democrat in 2018. Without a perfect sweep as described above, including Arizona, the Democrats cannot win the Senate in 2018. I expect them to lose 2-3 seats even in a favorable political environment. However, the house is much more in play. That could possibly flip to the Democrats, but I’d say the odds of a flip are slightly less than 50:50 right now.

As much as I would love to believe in the American people, I can’t. Complacency and stupidity have won the day.

The outcome will depend on what level of success the Republicans achieve and how successes are communicated (hyped) as Republicans work on the big-ticket items. Infrastructure, Health Care, Immigration, etc. etc.

People underestimate just how dissatisfied the general public is with the current congress and administration.

Democrats will pick up both houses of Congress, but it will be close. A return to a deadlocked Congress/President will be good for average Americans since neither party’s dips#!t ideas will be able to be enacted.

If the Republicans in Congress get behind Trump’s agenda, they’ll have at least 60 seats in the Senate and at least a 20-seat gain in the House.

Whatever happens, I hope that we can get more candidates elected that will set ideologies aside and work together for the best of our country. The vitriolic rhetoric in our government from national to local is giving the rising generation nothing to look forward to and and the youth of our country no one to look up to. I’m a baby boomer. I’m old-fashioned. I’m disgusted.

As Americans see an actual increase in their take-home pay, increased bonuses, flush 401(k)s, record low unemployment, record high consumer confidence, common-sense foreign aid, nation-building disentanglement, quelching of foreign migrant Invaders, and support for national and individual sovereignty–it will be a landslide for Republicans.

We won’t see much of a change, a few house seats might turn but nothing to write home about. Nancy Pelosi is still as reviled as ever in red states where the Democrats would need to pick up seats. At this point, Democrats are their own worst enemy, and I have major doubts about the DNC being able to help its candidates in a meaningful way in non-blue states.

Tax reductions. Lower unemployment and a better economic environment will keep the independents and undecideds in the Republican camp. People primarily vote with their wallets.

The house could indeed be up for grabs, but if the economic trends continue – and Rs don’t completely devolve into a circular firing squad – the pitch will be “Do you want to go back?” Back to 1% growth, 8% unemployment, regulations on regulations, do you want to impeach Trump, etc. The biggest thing will be GOTV on the GOP side. Turnout election – better be ready.

The president is unable to control himself on Twitter, or with anything else, for that matter. What a fool. Those who remain loyal to him are going down en masse in November.

It is too early to be making this prediction. How the tax reform bill is perceived, what Trump and Congress do with infrastructure legislation, the quality of candidates, the number of currently unannounced “retirements,” and the number of forced resignations caused by currently undisclosed histories of “bad behavior” will all come into play in making this determination.