An internal poll from Ben McAdams’ campaign has the Democratic Congressional candidate down just 2 points to two-term incumbent Republican Mia Love.
The polling memo from the Mellman group shows Love with 46% and McAdams getting 44%. Those numbers suggest the contest is a statistical tie as they both fall within the margin of error.
The survey finds Love has a 91-percent name recognition among 4th CD voters, while McAdams is at just 69%.
The survey suggests President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the 4th District could be a major factor when voters go to the polls in November. 60% of respondents held a negative view of Trump while only 39% have a positive view of the president.
From the memo:
“Congresswoman Love scores poorly for her association with DC. Despite efforts to cast herself as an independent, by an 11-point margin voters say she ‘supports Donald Trump too much.’ In addition, voters say she ‘supports the national Republican Party too much’ by an even more lopsided margin.”
We should cast a cynical eye toward these results as they come from an internal campaign poll, but they do seem to track with the conventional wisdom about the current state of the race. The most recent UtahPolicy.com survey from June gave Love a 4-point lead over McAdams.
Real Clear Politics ranks the race as “toss-up” between Love and McAdams, while the Cook Political Report says the race is “lean Republican” despite ranking Utah’s 4th CD as the 91st “most Republican” in the nation with a built-in 13-point GOP electoral advantage.
FiveThirtyEight.com rates the contest as “likely Republican” giving Love an 80% of winning in November.
