GOP legislative leaders tell UtahPolicy.com that should the Better Boundaries initiative pass on Nov. 6, they will look to amend the new law to “fix” parts they believe are unworkable.
What’s likely not to happen, should the bipartisan/nonpartisan redistricting commission be passed by voters, is to let it go into effect in 2021 without some kind of changes, UtahPolicy.com is told.
And – for the first time – leaders said Monday that sponsors of the petition were approached during the 2018 Legislature to see if some kind of compromise could be worked out.
“But they were not amenable to that process,” said House Majority Leader Brad Wilson, R-Kaysville.
Former Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker, one of the co-chairs of Better Boundaries, says he and co-chair Jeff Wright had two meetings with GOP legislative leaders, but never had anything presented in writing for them to consider.
Besides, the final of two meetings was within a week or less of the end of the 45-day session, and Becker says there wouldn’t have been time to adequately hear any compromise – even if one was offered and agree to. Which was not the case.
With the retirement of House Speaker Greg Hughes, R-Draper, Wilson is the odds-on favorite to be the next speaker come the 2019 Legislature, where Prop. 4 will likely be dealt with should it pass.
Senate Majority Whip Stuart Adams, R-Layton – who may well be the next Senate president as Sen. Wayne Niederhauser, R-Sandy, retires this year – said there are no plans now by the Senate GOP caucus or leadership on how to deal with Prop. 4 should it pass.
But both Wilson and Adams say that they are armed with an opinion by their own legislative attorneys that says there are “problems” with Prop. 4 – problems that may or may not be fixable through amendments.
“Like any bill or law we pass,” said Wilson, lawmakers may well look to amend Prop. 4 if voters pick it this November.
The chances of passage are pretty good – at least as of today.
A recent UtahPolicy.com poll conducted by Dan Jones & Associates shows that Prop. 4 is favored by 52 percent of voters.
Only 18 percent oppose the measure, while a large 30 percent “don’t know” how they feel about the initiative.
In a normal election year, a citizen initiative like Prop. 4 may be getting a lot of newspaper ink and TV time.
But this is not a normal year – and Prop. 2, the medical marijuana initiative, is sucking all the political air out of the other two propositions – Medical expansion and Better Boundaries.
And Question 1, the gasoline tax hike for public school funding, is also not getting much attention.
Back during the 2018 Legislature, legislative leaders reached an agreement with the Our Schools Now citizen initiative tax hike for public schools.
OSN dropped their petition and legislators and GOP Gov. Gary Herbert agreed to put Question 1 on the ballot for citizen approval.
There were also talks between the medical marijuana initiative supporters and GOP lawmakers – but they didn’t go far.
Wilson now reveals that leaders also talked with Better Boundaries backers to see if some kind of accommodation could be reached. But those talks also didn’t go far, Wilson said Monday.
Wilson said their own attorneys’ opinion raises “significant constitutional issues.”
Becker, who served in the House for years and was minority leader for a while, said legislative general counsel John Fellows attended the second meeting with leaders. Fellows, said Becker, “gave an endless list” of what he believes are legal problems with Prop. 4.
Becker and his supporters, of course, disagree. “We have carefully crafted” the language and process in Prop. 4. “We believe it will stand up to any legal challenge,” he added.
The Utah Constitution – like constitutions of other states – say the Legislature will redraw U.S. House and legislative districts every 10 years after a U.S. Census.
For the last 40 years that has been the GOP-controlled Legislature.
Democrats often complain about the result, but with Republican governors signing those redistricting bills into law, the minority party has not had an option. Becker went though the 2001 redistricting, and says: “It was the worse political experience of my career, bar none.”
Better Boundaries – which is backed by Republicans and Democrats alike — is now that option. It’s modeled after several other states’ bipartisan/nonpartisan citizen commissions – several of which have been upheld in the courts.
Prop. 4 can be read here.
Basically, it sets up a seven-member commission that would have to follow strict guidelines in redrawing Utah’s four U.S. House districts and 104 state Senate and House districts.
The commission couldn’t consider partisan voting patterns, or where incumbents live; would have to place first current local government and county boundaries, groups of interests and natural geographic boundaries, like mountain ranges.
Several commission plans would then be sent to the Legislature, which would have to vote one up or down without amendments. And if the Legislature adopts a non-commission plan, citizens could easily sue, and the Utah courts would be likely to uphold the commission plan.
In short, the commission couldn’t gerrymander districts to the benefit of any individual or political party – as the Legislature has been accused of doing in the past.
Wilson said he believes any such commission’s work would not greatly change the boundaries the Legislature’s own bipartisan Redistricting Commission came up with in 2021.
There are just so many Republicans/conservatives in the state, the make-up of the Legislature wouldn’t change much, either way, he said.
And that is likely true.
However, it is also likely that – following the guidelines of Prop. 4 – one of the four U.S. House seats could be less Republican-dominated, with a chance that Democrats might actually win a Salt Lake City-based district.
In any case, Wilson and Adams said they hope citizens will vote down Prop. 4 – as they believe, and their own attorneys’ opinion says — the voters can’t take away the constitutional power of the Legislature to redistrict.
There has been talk of some group forming to oppose Prop. 4 – and raise some money to take out billboards or radio or TV ads asking voters to reject it.
But neither man said they’ve yet seen such opposition form up. And with a little over a month before the Nov. 6 election, such an effort would need to get going with their public arguments soon.
UtahPolicy.com reached Becker as he was walking into a Better Boundaries meeting where the final stages of its “Vote Yes on Prop. 4” media campaign will be approved.
“We will have a full media effort; we have the money,” said Becker.
Meanwhile, there is a real chance a special session between Nov. 6 and the 2019 Legislature, which starts in late January, will be called by Herbert to deal with medical marijuana.
But Herbert spokesman Paul Edwards said Monday that the governor “has no intention” of placing Prop. 4 on such a special session call.
In other words, it would be up to the Legislature to deal with it, if at all, in the normal general session.
Becker said Prop. 4 backers would gladly speak with lawmakers about any proposed changes to the law, should it be adopted by voters.
