New poll of battleground House districts finds Democrats with a slight edge

A new nationwide poll of 69 battleground House districts, including Utah’s hotly contested 4th District, finds voters leaning toward Democrats by a slight margin.

The survey from the Washington Post and Schar School found voters narrowly preferring the Democratic candidate over the Republican. That could spell trouble for Republicans who are trying to hang on to their majority in the November midterms.

The poll found likely voters in battleground districts favored the Democratic candidate over the Republican by a 50-46% margin. These same districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic ones by 15-points in 2016. 

In the 48 battleground districts Trump won in 2016, the survey found voters nearly evenly split, with 48% supporting the Democratic candidate and 47% favoring the Republican.

In the 21 battleground districts Hillary Clinton won, Democrats have a 10-point advantage, 53-43.

The biggest factor driving November’s election is how voters feel about President Trump. Trump’s approval rating in these districts stands at 43%, which is slightly higher than Trump’s national rating of 38%. Pollsters estimate Trump will need a national approval rating of 45% for Republicans to maintain their House majority, and his rating will need to be slightly higher than that in competitive districts to help the GOP candidate.

According to polling, Trump’s approval rating in CD4 stands at just 38%, while 62% of voters disapprove of his job performance. A whopping 54% of CD4 voters “strongly disapprove” of Trump’s work in the White House, which could spell trouble for Republican incumbent Mia Love, who is locked in a tight re-election battle with Democrat Ben McAdams.

The Post survey also found a significant gender gap, with women in the battleground districts favoring Democrats 54-40, while men prefer Republicans 51-46. The most recent survey of the 4th District found women favoring McAdams 51-43%, while men preferred Love 54-41%.

You can read the full survey results here.