Our “Political Insiders” think the Mia Love/Ben McAdams race is going to be a nailbiter, while Mitt Romney should romp to an easy win on Tuesday.
We asked our “Insider” panel to call their shot on two of the most high-profile races in Utah on Saturday. While all of the groups we asked expected the Love-McAdams contest to be close, Republicans expected Love to prevail, while Democrats and our readers think McAdams will win.
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Who will win the UT04 race between Mia Love and Ben McAdams? |
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Republican insiders |
Democratic insiders |
UtahPolicy.com readers |
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Mia Love by 10 or more points |
0% |
0% |
1% |
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Mia Love by 5-9 points |
8% |
5% |
3% |
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Mia Love by less than 5 points |
54% |
16% |
24% |
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Ben McAdams by less than 5 points |
33% |
74% |
55% |
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Ben McAdams by 5-9 points |
5% |
5% |
17% |
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Ben McAdams by 10 or more points |
0% |
0% |
0% |
When asked about the U.S. Senate race to replace the retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch, not surprisingly nearly everyone who responded expect Republican Mitt Romney to cruise on Tuesday.
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Who will win the U.S. Senate race between Mitt Romney and Jenny Wilson? |
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Republican insiders |
Democratic insiders |
UtahPolicy.com readers |
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Mitt Romney by 10 or more points |
98% |
89% |
92% |
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Mitt Romney by 5-9 points |
0% |
5% |
4% |
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Mitt Romney by less than 5 points |
2% |
6% |
2% |
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Jenny Wilson by less than 5 points |
0% |
0% |
2% |
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Jenny Wilson by 5-9 points |
0% |
0% |
0% |
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Jenny Wilson by 10 or more points |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Selected anonymous comments:
It will be a close race, but it seems to me that McAdams is surging. It’s probably to close to call.
Mia’s closing statement has been really negative and the President isn’t doing her any favors. I think the independents and undecideds all break for Ben and he squeaks it out.
It will be close but the deal lawmakers and the governor cut on medical marijuana will dampen voter enthusiasm McAdams needs.
If there were a reasonable, rational person in the Oval Office, Mia wins this contest easily. However, the anti-Trump enthusiasm of the Democrats will drive enough Democratic voters to the polls that she will lose.
I think that McAdams will squeak by. It is a shame that out-of-state PAC’s or PIC’s get involved because I have no idea if they are credible, in terms of their information. Both of Love’s campaigns have turned negative in nature. It’s not necessarily Mia’s fault or, is it? Ben might have fired the first negative volley. Maybe the out-of-state interests caused the campaign to turn nasty. Nevertheless, I have favored Ben all along, even though I’m a Republican. As they say, “the most accurate poll will be on election day.” I don’t think that the Love family and the McAdams families will be exchanging Christmas cards this year. That is a bad reflection on Utah as a whole. Oh my heck!
McAdams has the momentum at the right time.
Democrats don’t win close elections in Utah.
This one will either be a nail-biter, or all the polls botched the turnout model and Love has another 13-point win. No chance McAdams wins by more than a 2-point spread.
Mia will win, Utah county will pull her through with Romney on the ticket.
It seems like they are virtually tied and I think ties in Utah break for the Republican.
It’s never as close as the polls say it will be because many of the people who are polled don’t vote.
McAdams has run a great campaign. Top Notch. He should still lose. He won’t, because Love has run the worst campaign since Henderson lost the CD03 special convention. Funny thing is Henderson and Love have the same consulting team. Will be close, but the tide is with McAdams. In an R+13, that’s unacceptable.
McAdams cleans her clock going away. While it has not been mentioned much if at all, a large segment (10-15%) of the Mormon voters in district 4 will vote against Love because she is black and female. This bias doesn’t not show in the polls because this segment of the district doesn’t want to admit in any public way their prejudice. The negative campaign by both sides allows them to vote against her and for the white and Mormon male. It doesn’t help at all that the negative ads make both look foolish, but the unwritten and unrecorded part is it comes back to bite her as a woman and more so as a black person. So much for Utah’s non-gender and non-racial ethic.
The question shouldn’t be if Mitt wins by 10 points or more, it should be if Mitt wins by 30 points or more.
The outcome of this race was never in doubt from the moment Mitt announced his intention to run.
Mitt will probably win by two points for every mansion that he owns.
Nice try, Jenny.
Mitt Romney will be a force in DC. He has the connections and ability to stand up to Trump while being a mainstream Republican. Look out for him to be a campaign draw in 2020 and lead the NRSC.
Why people love “the great pretender” is a real puzzle, but he is so worried about appearances he will actually be much better on key gender-related issues than brother Orrin. However, he joins the flock on budget reduction and entitlement killing measures. Mitt and Donald sitting in a tree…and the beat goes on.
