Utah’s aren’t yet sold on giving President Donald Trump a second term in office.
A new Utah Political Trends survey from UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics finds just 38% of registered voters in the state would vote for President Trump if the next presidential election were held today. 30% said they would vote for the eventual Democratic nominee. 12% would vote for a third-party option, while 6% mentioned some other candidate. 14% did not know.
Clearly, Trump’s support is extremely soft, especially for an incumbent president with a good economy. Does that mean Democrats might have a chance to turn the state “blue” for the first time since 1964?
“Probably not,” says UtahPolicy.com pollster Kelly Patterson of Y2 Analytics.
“People do not yet know who the choice will be between, so they can express their uncertainty about President Trump in a pre-election poll,” notes Patterson.
He says once the Democrats have a nominee, the choice between that person and Trump will become more concrete.
“President Trump’s strengths will, for voters, be highlighted against the strengths of the challenger. To make these kinds of assessments, voters rely on cues from the political party to which they belong. In other words, the contest still favors those who have the highest levels of party support in a particular state,” said Patterson.
It’s worth noting the 30% of Utahns who say they would vote for the Democratic candidate mirrors the size of the vote Democrats have received in the last 5 presidential elections.
The support for Trump’s re-election is softest in Utah’s 4th Congressional District. Just 33% of registered voters there would vote for Trump, while 37% said they would vote for the eventual Democratic nominee.
In CD1, 45% would vote for Trump while 21% favor the eventual Democratic candidate.
Congressional District 2 is evenly split on the question, with 35% saying they would vote for Trump, while 37% lean toward voting Democratic.
39% of voters in CD3 picked Trump over other options. 24% said they would vote for the Democratic nominee.
Not surprisingly, self-identified Republicans independents who lean to the right side of the political spectrum say they would vote to re-elect Trump. 87% of “strong” Republicans, 41% of “not very strong” Republicans and 55% of independent-leaning Republicans would like to give Trump another term in office.
Also not surprising is the number of Utah voters who call themselves Democrats or lean left who would not want to see President Trump win another term. 0% of Democrats and just 1% of Democratic-leaning unaffiliated voters would vote for Trump.
Independents who don’t identify with either party are almost evenly divided into three camps. 27% would vote for Trump, 20% for the Democratic nominee and 26% had no preference.
Trump’s strength lies with older voters, while younger Utahns are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate in 2020.
Only 24% of Utahns between the age of 18-34 want Trump to have another term, while 38% would vote for the eventual Democratic nominee.
Respondents between 35 and 44 are evenly split, with 31% preferring a second term for Trump while 30% pick the Democratic candidate.
47% of Utahns between 45 and 54, 44% of those between 55-64 and 46% of those over the age of 65 would vote for Trump in 2020. Only a quarter of voters in each of those groups would support the Democratic nominee.
The Utah Political Trends Panel was conducted among a random sample of 2,608 registered Utah voters using an online survey. The results were weighted to reflect Utah’s demographic makeup. The survey has a margin of error +/- 2.1%. You can read more about the survey’s methodology here.