Analysis: Trump’s unpopularity in Utah’s 4th District could spell trouble for GOP next year

President Donald Trump

Just how different politically is Utah’s 4th U.S. House district?

In some instances, not much.

In others, very different from the rest of the state.

The Utah Political Trends survey from and Y2 Analytics conducted in July shows some of the variations.

And all tend to favor incumbent Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams over any GOP challengers next year.

And it shows, again, why any Republican who wins the 4th District nomination may want to stay away from GOP President Donald Trump.

Trump has never been very popular in Utah, even though he won the state in 2016 with 45 percent of the vote.

Here are some of the numbers found by Y2:

If the 2020 presidential election were today, in the 4th District only 33 percent said they would vote for Trump; 37 percent said they would vote for the Democratic nominee – no matter who that was.

The rest said they didn’t know yet or said they would vote for someone else.

Now, the 4th District is still a plus-13 Republican district, meaning a Republican candidate in that district should perform 13-points better than the national average. That usually would translate to a comfortable GOP win.

For Trump to be performing this poorly really shows many voters in the 4th District don’t’ like him.

And that is shown in his job approval ratings inside the district:

Only 37 percent of district voters “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the job Trump is doing. 59 percent disapprove of him.

Y2 found that 4 percent “neither approve nor disapprove,” and 1 percent don’t know.

Asked the generic question on who they would vote for in their 4th District U.S. House race next year, the Republican or the Democrat (McAdams name was NOT used):

= 34 percent said the Republican.

= But 36 percent said the Democrat.

The rest were undecided.

This is a big win, at least in this poll, for McAdams, who will seek his first re-election next year.

In the 1st and 3rd Districts – both very Republican – when asked who they may vote for next year in their U.S. House race, the GOP candidate does very well: 45-20 percent in the 1st District and 43-21 percent in the 3rd.

Now, the Y2 sample in the 2nd District, which is a Republican district even though it includes most of liberal/Democratic Salt Lake City, shows incumbent Rep. Chris Stewart, R-Utah, could be in for a tight race next year if the Democrats can field a serious candidate.

Whether you will vote for the GOP or Democratic candidate in the U.S. House contest next year in the 2nd District, 37 percent said the Republican (Stewart’s name was not mentioned), and 36 percent said the Democrat.

Stewart has been one of Trump’s strongest supporters in the House, defending him time and again.

Among 2nd District voters, 58 percent disapprove of the job the president is doing, only 38 percent approve, and 4 percent neither approve nor disapprove.

Y2 finds that 35 percent of 2nd District voters would vote for Trump if the election were today, but 37 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate, no matter who that is.

These 2nd District numbers lean toward Stewart not asking Trump to campaign in Utah for him next year. But we’ll see on that one.