The Republican voter in Utah is changing, it appears. But is the Utah Republican Party changing with them?
Demographics found inside of a recent UtahPolicy.com/Y2 Analytics survey shows that 33 percent of Utah voters identify as Republicans, either “strong Republicans,” (23 percent), or “not very strong Republicans,” (10 percent), give or take the margin of error.
That means two-thirds of Utahns don’t self-identify as Republicans.
This is NOT reflected in any number of individual races, of course. Since those who consider themselves independents, maybe even a few Democrats, may vote for the Republican candidate, thus giving that person a more-than-50 percent victory.
Or they may not vote at all in some races.
Also, groups of “strong Republicans” may be clustered geographically, heavy in Utah County, not so much in Salt Lake County.
Independents who said they “lean Republican” make up another 12 percent, for a total likely GOP support of around 45 percent statewide.
It’s clear that Utah, unlike some of her neighbors, will remain a strong Republican state for some time.
About one-third of Utahns said they are “strong” Democrats, or “not so strong” Democrats, or “lean” Democratic.
The rest say they are pure independents, not leaning toward any of the major two parties.
Inside that “big tent” Republican Party, as former President Ronald Reagan liked to describe it, things seem to be in flux.
For example, 54 percent of “strong Republicans” are men, only 46 percent women.
Among the “strong Democrats,” 59 percent are women, only 41 percent men.
So there is a clear gender gap.
“Strong Republicans” are still Mormons – 73 percent of “strong Republicans” say they are also LDS, very active or less active.
But turn that around, and you find that among those who said they are “very active” or “less active” in their LDS faith, only half said they are “strong Republicans.”
That may be one reason that faithful LDS Rep. Ben McAdams, the Democrat, barely won in the GOP-leaning 4th Congressional District last year: It was well-known he was a good Mormon, and likely he got many Mormon votes that, in years past, may have gone to the GOP LDS candidate.
In fact, the new survey shows that in McAdams’ 4th District, just under half of the voters say they are “active” or “less active” Mormons, while in the 3rd District that number is 65 percent of voters.
And “strong Republicans” are aging – only 30 percent are under 45 years old, while 28 percent are over 65, senior citizens.
Fifty-four percent of independent voters are under 45 years old, 53 percent of “strong Democrats,” while certainly fewer in number than “strong Republicans,” are under 45.
So, independents and Democrats are getting more Mormons in their ranks, and they certainly have a greater percent of young people.
Newly-elected state GOP chairman Derek Brown says his party must go after younger voters – for not only are they the future of any party, it appears Republicans have not done very well in attracting younger folks previously.
Republican Party officials don’t have to make an overt play for Mormons – at least not yet.
Historically, that has been done in an oblique manner, like bringing up abortion – which is not a defining political issue in Utah – at election time.
The party and its top candidates can also talk about the sanctity of marriage – a major theme inside the LDS Church.
But that issue plays badly in the state’s growing LGBTQ community and their supporters – a younger set of voters not traditionally welcomed inside the state GOP.
All the above is one reason Utah Republicans have lost out in Salt Lake City.
None of the mayoral candidates this year were Republican in a field of strong contenders. While officially nonpartisan, previous mayoral races have seen a well-known Republican advance to the final election, where all have lost to the Democrat.
The city is more and more progressive, minority friendly, and Democratic.
The LDS Church has closed a number of ward houses in the city over the last 20 years – membership dropping — although a new downtown office building being developed by the church is reportedly going to have a ward congregation area inside.
The relative unpopularity of GOP President Donald Trump, as often noted in our polls, is likely one reason the Utah Republican Party is not enjoying the popularity its seen in recent years – why the number of independents is growing.
The next few elections will see if that trend continues, or the Grand Old Party makes a comeback.
