Poll shows McAdams’ support of impeachment may not cost him politically

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Democrat Ben McAdams may not pay a political price for his vote in favor of impeachment according to a new Utah Political Trends Survey.

Voters in McAdams’ district say they would be slightly more likely to support their Representative in Congress following a vote to impeach President Donald Trump. 42% said they would support a vote to impeach Trump, while 37% said they would be less likely to support a vote in favor of impeachment. 18% said a vote for impeachment would have no effect on their support either way.

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The House will likely vote to impeach President Trump on Wednesday. The House Judiciary Committee has accused Trump of abuse of power for pressuring the Ukrainian government to announce an investigation into Trump’s political rivals by withholding military aid that was already approved by Congress. Trump is also charged with obstruction of Congress for ignoring subpoenas and blocking their efforts to investigate.

McAdams announced on Monday morning he would vote in favor of impeachment after his efforts to have President Trump censured for his behavior toward Ukraine was unsucessful.

McAdams is already under significant fire on the impeachment issue. Right-wing groups have peppered his district with hundreds of thousands of dollars of television and online ads to put pressure on him and drive down his support. He is already considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in Congress following his incredibly narrow victory in 2018.

Rep. Chris Stewart has been one of President Trump’s most vocal supporters throughout the current impeachment process. Stewart’s opposition to impeachment has seemingly paid off for him politically. 47% of voters in his district say they would be less likely to support a vote in favor of impeachment while 41% say they would be more likely to support a vote to impeach. 10% say an impeachment vote would not affect their support.

47% of voters in Rob Bishop’s 1st District say they would be more likely to support a vote in favor of impeachment, while 40% would view such a vote less favorably.

Rep. John Curtis has already publicly said he would vote against impeachment. That stance seemingly will not affect him either way. 37% in his district said they would be more supportive following a vote for impeachment, while 39% said they would be less supportive. 22% would not change their support based on a vote for impeachment.

Overall, the issue has Utahns split almost evenly. 

  • 42% said they would be more likely to support their representative in Congress following a vote to impeach President Trump.
  • 41% say their support would be dampened following a vote to impeach.
  • 15% of all Utahns believe an impeachment vote would not have any impact on their support.

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Unsurprisingly, there is a significant difference between Republicans and Democrats on the issue. Democrats say a vote to impeach President Trump would make them much more likely to support their member of Congress, while Republicans believe such a decision would lessen their support.

As with most issues involving President Trump, there is a clear gender gap with men being much more supportive of the president, while women voters generally dislike him. Statewide, our survey found that voting in favor of impeachment would make women more likely to support their representatives, while men would be much less supportive.

  • 48% of women say they would be much or somewhat more likely to support their representative following a vote to impeach the president, while only 36% of men would agree.
  • 46% of men say they would be less likely to support their representative if they voted to impeach President Trump, while 35% of women would feel that way.

The survey was conducted for UtahPolicy.com by Y2 analytics from November 19 to December 7, 2019 among 911 registered Utah voters. It has a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.