When Democrat Tim Cosgrove announced he was not seeking a 5th term in this seat, Republicans immediately saw it as a possible pick-up in 2014. Now that the field has been set, we are moving this seat from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.”
This district remained in Democratic hands for the past four election cycles based mainly on the popularity of outgoing Rep. Tim Cosgrove. Nonprofit fundraiser Christine Passey (Democrat) and software engineer Bruce Cutler (Republican) should have quite a battle for this open seat in 2014.
We see no built-in advantage for either candidate at this time.