Poll suggests Reps. Chris Stewart and Ben McAdams could have tough re-election campaigns in November

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GOP U.S. Rep. Chris Stewart might want to start spending more time and money working on his re-election bid this year.

A new UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2 poll by Y2 Analytics shows that in Stewart’s District 2, 39 percent of voters plan on picking the Republican candidate, 37 percent like the Democrat — and that is a statistical tie.

There are 14 percent “don’t know,” with 6 percent liking “someone else” besides the two main political parties, and 4 percent mention “other.”

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No candidate names were used — so this poll is referred to as a “naked elect” or “generic” survey — measuring only support for the parties themselves.

But in a Republican district like Stewart’s, these are not good numbers for him at all.

Meanwhile, in the 4th District, 39 percent said they like whomever the Republican candidate will be, while 34 percent pick the Democrat.


Again, U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams, the incumbent Democrat, wasn’t mentioned by name.

Fourteen percent said they were undecided, 7 percent mentioned “someone else,” while 6 percent said “other.”

The results for McAdams’ re-election are actually good, as normally various rating groups say that the 4th District is a plus-13 point Republican.

But this poll shows it is only a plus-5 point district.

The Cook Political Report shows the 2nd District as 16 points in favor of Republicans, but Y2 shows it only as a plus 2 points for a Republican currently.

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Now, there is no doubt that some of those surveyed by Y2 in the 2nd District know their representative is the Republican Stewart.

And many in the 4th District know their U.S. House member is McAdams, the Democrat.

And they know each man’s political party, as well.

So there are voters in both districts that are taking the incumbents’ popularity into account.

Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, is retiring from his 1st District seat — and a bunch of Republicans are trying to be their party’s nominee up there.

Y2 finds 49 percent of voters in the 1st plan on voting Republican in the fall, only 22 percent said Democratic, with 17 percent don’t know, 7 percent saying “someone else,” and 4 percent “other.”

Down in Rep. John Curtis’ 3rd District he looks safe: 47 percent said they are voting Republican (again, no names used), 24 percent Democratic, 5 percent “someone else,” 4 percent “other,” and 20 percent don’t know.

Stewart has been a strong, vocal, supporter of President Donald Trump from the get go — after Trump became the GOP nominee. Stewart had some harsh words for Trump when he first got in the 2016 race.

A large part of Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City is in the 2nd District — and they have never been happy with Stewart, who routinely loses the city by huge numbers. But the rest of the 2nd District — homebase Davis County — is very Republican.

However, the new Y2 numbers show that Stewart better start raising some funds and look to his GOP base and beyond, for he’s is clearly not doing well with independent voters.

This is not a predictive poll — they never are. And there is a lot of time for Stewart to campaign in his 2nd District, which is still very Republican overall.

However, Stewart might want to consider how much time he’s spending on Fox News and how much time he’s spending back in his district campaigning.

UtahPolicy.com recently partnered with KUTV 2 News and Y2 Analytics and will be providing polling results on a regular basis throughout the election season.