Poll: Trump leads Biden by just 5 points in Utah

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President Donald Trump leads presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden by just 5 percentage points according to a new Utah Political Trends survey.

The poll from UtahPolicy.com and KUTV 2News conducted by Y2 Analytics finds President Trump with 46 percent support among likely Utah voters and Biden with 41 percent. 5 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate, while 2 percent replied they would cast a ballot for another candidate. 5 percent said they were not sure.

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While Trump’s 46 percent seems alarming, it’s right in line with his total from the 2016 election when he carried Utah with just 45.5 percent of the vote. Trump’s approval rating has hovered around that level ever since. In a February survey, 46 percent of likely Utah voters said they would vote for Trump in 2020. In February, a majority of Utah voters approved of Trump’s job performance for the first time ever, pushing his job approval to 52 percent after it was mired below 50 percent since his election.

Biden leads Trump nationally by nearly 6 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

Support for Trump’s re-election remains strong among Republicans and unaffiliated voters who lean toward the GOP, while Democrats are solidly behind Biden. True independent voters slightly favor Biden over Trump 39-32 percent.

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As we’ve seen in several polls, there’s a significant gender gap when it comes to attitudes toward President Trump, with men lining up behind Trump and women mostly supporting Biden. 54 percent of men said they would vote for Trump, while just 39 percent of women agreeing, which is a 15 point gap. 47 percent of women said they would vote for Biden in November while just 35 percent of men would. 

Trump’s base of support lies mostly on the far right of the Republican party. 92 percent of self-described “strong” conservatives say they’ll vote for Trump as would 66 percent of Utah voters who are “moderately conservative.” A majority of moderates and liberals support Biden’s candidacy according to the survey

Educational levels also play a big part in whether Utah voters support Trump or Biden. Utah voters with some high school education or less prefer Trump over Biden by a whopping 62-0 margin. 48 percent of high school graduates would vote for Trump while 38 percent plan to cast a ballot for Biden. Utah voters with some college education favor Trump to Biden 59-28 percent. College graduates are evenly split between the two, with 44 percent behind Biden and 42 percent with Trump. Utahns with a post-graduate degree slightly favor Biden 48-42 percent, while voters who went to a vocational or technical school like Biden over Trump 48-41 percent.

The Utah Political Trends survey was conducted March 21-30, 2020 among 1,331 likely Utah voters with a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points.

Utah Policy.com is partnering with KUTV 2News and Y2 Analytics and will be providing polling results on a regular basis throughout the election season. You can sign up for UtahPolicy.com’s daily email newsletter here.