More good news for freshman Democratic U.S. House Rep. Ben McAdams: A new UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2News poll shows in his 4th District the votes are split evenly between a possible Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate.
Y2 Analytics sought to measure base support for the two main party candidates in the four U.S. House districts, without naming any candidates.
In McAdams’ 4th District, 38 percent said they currently favor the Democratic candidate (McAdams wasn’t mentioned by name), while 38 percent said the Republican candidate (none of the 8 GOP candidates running were named).
Eighteen percent said they were undecided in the race; 1 percent said they would vote for “other;” and 4 percent mentioned someone else who is running, like a third-party candidate.
By various rankings, Utah’s 4th District is considered up to a +13 point leaning Republican.
So for any Democratic candidate to be tied in the district portends well for McAdams, who has been targeted by national Republicans as one of the most vulnerable Democratic House incumbents in 2020.
In the other three U.S. House districts, the Republican candidate (no names used) does better than a generic Democratic candidate.
— In the 1st District, where incumbent Rep. Rob Bishop is not running again, it is 48-31 percent, GOP over Democratic.
— 20 percent of 1st District voters tell Y2 they are undecided at this point — no doubt many Republicans not yet backing one of the 12 GOP candidates seeking to replace Bishop.
— In the 2nd District, Rep. Chris Stewart, R-Utah, sees 41 percent supporting a Republican candidate, with 33 percent saying the Democratic candidate.
The 2nd District includes most of liberal-leaning Salt Lake City, so that likely is why a Democratic candidate does relatively well in the 2nd.
— In the very Republican 3rd District, 46 percent said they favor the Republican candidate (again, Rep. John Curtis not named), while 29 percent say the Democrat — the lowest Democratic showing among the four U.S. House seats.
Across the whole state, it is 43-31 percent, Republican House candidates favored over Democratic.
This finding roughly breaks out along party registration lines in the state, although Democrats at 31 percent do slightly better than the percentage of their registered voters — showing some independents are favoring Democrats.
A previously-published Y2 poll found GOP President Donald Trump leads Democrat Joe Biden (the likely nominee), 46-41 percent in Utah.
So the generic statewide 43 percent Republican support in U.S. House races here is reflected there.
However, Biden does 10 percentage points better in the presidential match-up than the 31 percent statewide seen for House Democrats.
This indicates — but surely doesn’t ensure — that Democratic House candidates across the state may do better in November because Biden is the Democrat at the head of the ballot.
That fact likely will help McAdams in his re-election bid, as he will need some help — either from Biden coattails and/or an anti-Trump vote among 4th District independents, even Republicans, to hold on to his seat this year.
Four years ago, in a three-way race, Trump won Utah with less than 50 percent of the vote.
McAdams barely defeated then-GOP Rep. Mia Love by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2018 — in mid-term elections that saw Democrats take over control of the U.S. House.
Utah Policy.com is partnering with KUTV 2News and Y2 Analytics and will be providing polling results on a regular basis throughout the election season.
