GOP Wave in November? Not So Fast…

There’s really no hard evidence yet of a GOP wave election coming in November.

Yesterday, NRCC Chairman Greg Walden predicted big pickups for the GOP in November, possibly bringing their majority in the House to 245 seats, which would be the largest since 1945. 

The New York Times’ Nate Cohn says there’s just not enough evidence out there right now to support that kind of boast.

Unfortunately, generic ballot polling has been sparse so far this cycle. Last week, however, there were three national polls, by Fox News, CNN and Pew Research, asking the generic ballot question. None showed an anti-Democrat wave, like the one that brought Republicans back to power in 2010. In fact, none of the three polls showed Republicans with a lead among registered voters at all.

But, that’s not to say the GOP won’t gain a big advantage come November. Cohn thinks that’s probably going to happen.

The president’s approval ratings are weak, and the president’s party usually takes a drubbing in midterm elections. But if there is to be a trend toward the Republicans, it hasn’t started yet. If anything, the last cycle of live-interview nonpartisan polls was slightly stronger for Democrats than the last, when Republicans had a slight advantage.