Utah Policy/KSL Insider Survey: Does Doug Owens Have a Chance?

The Utah political world was abuzz this week about an internal poll from the Doug Owens campaign showing him within 9-points of Republican Mia Love.
The poll gave Democrats some potential good news while Republicans poo-poohed the numbers.

Not surprisingly, our “Political Insiders” were split along partisan lines when we asked them what they thought of the survey. Nearly 2/3 of the Republicans in our poll thought Owens has no shot to win the race come November, while over half of Democrats thought Owens had a slight chance if things fell his way. A third of Democrats think Owens has a solid chance of defeating Love, while just 39% of Republicans think he has a solid or slight chance of winning later this year.

Selected anonymous comments:

“It’s 9 freaking points! Unless $3 million falls from the sky, Doug does not have chance.”

“The only way Owens has a shot is if Mia Love starts regularly visiting Shurtleff in jail and tweeting out pictures of them together. #justice”

“That same poll company had McAdams down by 15 points. He went on to win by 10. So either Owens will win by 14 points or lose by 34 points.”

“I don’t think Love is particularly popular with the general populace, but she would have to do something crazy to lose. Owens can do nothing but avoid controversy and hope for a gigantic skeleton to fall out of the closet.”

“If he can effectively link Love to Mike Lee and his obstructionist policies and have a flawless get out the vote campaign, he might have a shot. Dems grew dissatisfied with Matheson and should be more energized for Owens.”

“Hopefully, he gets his messaging right, because she’s bound to have some public flops as she shows her Sarah-Palin-esque lack of knowledge and parroting of nearly meaningless slogans. He needs to avoid looking like a bully but still find a way to draw attention to her deficiencies.”

“If Mia Love does something stupid, then yes Owens has shot. It is her race to lose.””As long as Mia Love takes nothing for granted – and from everything I’ve seen, she’s taking this race very seriously and doing all the right things – she will win. I fail to see how Doug Owens’ support for Obamacare is anything other than an unelectable position here in Utah. (And he has the gall to call Mia extreme!)”

“Despite the best efforts of the gerrymander crew, a Democrat has won in this area many times; recently some Dems have not voted because of dislike of the Dem running’s positions. So more Dems might vote this time. Ya never know! Two years ago people commented that they didn’t really like Mia Love as mayor of their town. Winning will depend on whether money speaks to everyone, or whether content matters.”

“I hope that I don’t give the voters in the district too much credit. I truly hope that they can see through Mia Love and they realize that there is absolutely nobody home. She is as close to Michelle Bachman and Sarah Palin as you can get without being able to heal the LGBT community and see Russia from her front porch.”

“I am a Republican that has serious questions about Love’s abilities.”

“Owens is running as if Love were the incumbent. That might work in 2 years but probably won’t in November.”

“The dumbest thing the state dems could do is dump time and resourses into Doug’s campaign in 2014. They won’t win it and they will lose state house seats trying to.”

“It would take a huge blunder from Love for Owens to have any real shot. And by huge, I mean a Macaca or an ‘I am not a witch’ kind of mistake. Given how vicious the vetting was two years ago in the Matheson race, I doubt we’re going to find any new stones unturned.”

“Doug Owens has been in the news recently while Mia Love has laid low. When the campaign gets going, Love will use her superior funding to pummel Owens in the media. Nine points might as well by 29 points at this stage.”

“Owens’ campaign needs to get its s**t together if they want a chance to win. This is a winnable race, but his campaign is completely blowing it.”

“Anyone thinking Owens stands a chance in this race is either an Owens relative, an Owens campaign worker, or living in a fantasy world…or all three.”

“If Jim Matheson can only eke out a win by less than a 1,000 votes against Love, then Owens doesn’t have an LGBT rights bill’s chance in the Utah Legislature of beating the Love/Hansen duo.”

“I’m a Republican, but everyone keeps forgetting how badly Mayor Love lost just months ago with a Romney boost and good turnout. She turns off moderates, and isn’t conservative enough for some right wing voters. Did you hear her speech at the State convention? It was about dreams or something. Not a single policy proposal. You’d think with her time in municipal government she would talk about transportation or infrastructure, but she doesn’t. She talks in generalities because she is incapable of offering public policy critique. Notice how often she refuses debates? Notice in the poll that after they read a positive bio statement, people voted more for Owens and less for her, by a wide margin. Owens can win this.”

“Ben McAdams did it. Mia had EVERY advantage a challenger could have last time and couldn’t pull it off. It wasn’t the campaign it was her. Time will tell if she’s put in the work to be more polished and can prove to people she can do the job. I personally feel Doug Owen’s would really be the better congressman and I’m a Republican.”

“IF he does the work, IF he gets folks out knocking on the doors, THEN, yes, I think that the Utah GOP’s subtle racist tendencies will elect an upper middle class white guy. Just like they did Matheson in 2012.”

“You can bet the Owens campaign would not have released any information if the poll showed that he was 29 points behind.”

“Slow news days when the media gives so much attention to an internal poll. If all the registered Republicans stayed home, Doug would still lose to the unaffiliateds.”

“Owens never had a shot but he buried himself when he fired his campaign manager who actually knew what she was doing.”

“Totally could pull it off. There’s a huge chunk of the population that’s looking for a candidate that can make an apple pie and make it WITH children. Owens is that candidate.”

“He needed a little bit of good press and this poll was a good way to get it. Still no shot.”

“You have got to be kidding. Owens couldn’t win if Love died in a car wreck tomorrow. Or the day before the election.”