Utah's Attorney General race should be closer than this.
Our latest UtahPolicy.com poll shows Democrat Charles Stormont down by 35-points to Republican Sean Reyes in the race to replace disgraced former Attorney General John Swallow.
That's astonishing given the fact that the two previous office holders, both Republicans, have been arrested on multiple felony charges. Because of that scandal, it would be reasonable to think voters would be inclined to give a Democratic candidate at least a cursory look during this year's election. That's not the case…at all.
This is not an indictment of Reyes. He's a fine candidate and a capable Attorney General.
But, digging into the numbers, we see that Utah voters are disinclined to make a change this year.
Consider this:
- Men prefer Reyes over Stormont by a 59-22% margin.
- Women pick Reyes by a 55-22% margin
- Among voters between the age of 18 to 24, Stormont actually comes in third behind Reyes and perennial Libertarian candidate Andrew McCullough.
- Reyes is winning in every single age cohort. The closest margin coming among voters 25 to 34 years old where Reyes is ahead 44-31%.
While you would expect conservatives to side with Reyes and liberals to lean toward Stormont, surprisingly political moderates favor Reyes by a 39-33% margin. Democrats in Utah need to win a large number of moderates and pick off some conservative voters in order to win statewide elections. There simply aren't enough liberals to win on their own.
Stormont also has trouble with religious groups across the board.
- Reyes leads among "very active" members of the LDS Church by a whopping 74-8% margin.
- "Somewhat active" Mormons prefer Reyes 56-28%.
- "Not active" LDS Church members also tilt toward Reyes by a 51-32% margin.
- Catholics and those with no religion prefer Stormont, while Protestants say they support Reyes.
Clearly, Stormont has failed to gain any traction among a large swath of voters this year.
Utah Democrats have lost 27 statewide elections in a row. It certainly looks like that streak is about to be extended to 28.
