Why Doug Owens Will Win on Tuesday

Democrats are hoping beyond hope that Doug Owens can pull off the upset over Republican Mia Love on Tuesday. Here are some reasons why that could happen.

[Editor's note: Here are our reasons why Mia Love might win on Tuesday.]

Mia Love has never crossed 50% in any poll

Even going back to election day 2012, where she fell 768 votes short, Love has never been picked by a majority of Utahns. That has got to be worrying to Love's campaign that she can't crack the 50% mark. Love is arguably the best known politician in Utah. She has stayed in the local and national spotlight since losing to Jim Matheson in 2012. Utahns know her well, and she still can't get half to buy what she's selling.

Owens is gaining on Love

Just two weeks ago, our polling showed Owens down 9 points to Love. Last week, he was down by 5. Another independent poll showed Owens with a 3-point lead. All of that translates into real momentum for Owens. Will he have enough time to bridge the gap? That's the question.

Owens is making big gains among independent voters

Our latest poll is showing very little movement among Republicans and Democrats. But, independent voters are moving toward Owens. We've noted an 8-point swing toward Owens among these voters. If he can pick up a few more points among independents, he'll have a fighting chance.

Owens is getting support from Republicans

The Jim Matheson model for winning as a Democrat in Utah is get Republicans and independents to vote for you. Owens is getting support from 16% of GOP voters. I'm sure he'd like that number to be closer to 20%, but he's getting traction from Republicans who aren't sold on Mia Love. 

Salt Lake County is a Democratic stronghold

If Owens can get Democrats to turn out in force in Salt Lake County, it could be a repeat of 2012. 

Owens has a tough hill to climb, no doubt. But, he's done enough to keep this race close.