Bryan Schott’s Political BS: I’ve got 94 Predictions, but an Owens Win Ain’t One

There are 94 state or federal-level offices up for election on Tuesday.


Here are my predictions for those races. 

Please note these are just predictions, not endorsements.

I don’t expect too many surprises as off-year elections have low turnout, which tends to favor Republicans.

The race in Utah’s 4th Congressional District is a tight one, but Republican Mia Love will likely win by 3-4 percentage points. Democrat Doug Owens was closing in the final days of the race, but he will run out of time.

I see Democrats coming away with a net gain of 1 seat in the Utah Legislature. The Senate makeup will remain the same with 5 Democrats and 24 Republicans, but the House will be 60 Republicans and 15 Democrats.

Republican Sophia DiCaro should knock off longtime Democrat Larry Wiley in West Valley for the lone GOP pickup this year. However, Democrats Diane Lewis and Brad King will win seats currently held by Republicans.

Now, without further ado, here are my picks for the 2014 election.




Attorney General

Sean Reyes (R)

Congressional District 1

Rob Bishop (R)

Congressional District 2

Chris Stewart (R)

Congressional District 3

Jason Chaffetz (R)

Congressional District 4

Mia Love (R)

Senate 2

Jim Dabakis (D)

Senate 3

Gene Davis (D)

Senate 4

Jani Iwamoto (D)

Senate 5

Karen Mayne (D)

Senate 9

Wayne Niederhauser (R)

Senate 11

Howard Stephenson (R)

Senate 12

Daniel Thatcher (R)

Senate 15

Margaret Dayton (R)

Senate 17

Peter Knudson (R)

Senate 18

Ann Millner (R)

Senate 21

Jerry Stevenson (R)

Senate 22

Stuart Adams (R)

Senate 26

Kevin Van Tassell (R)

Senate 28

Evan Vickers (R)

House 1

Scott Sandall (R)

House 2

David Lifferth (R)

House 3

Jack Draxler (R)

House 4

Edward Redd (R)

House 5

Curt Webb (R)

House 6

Jake Anderegg (R)

House 7

Justin Fawson (R)

House 8

Gage Froerer (R)

House 9

Jeremy Peterson (R)

House 10

Dixon Pitcher (R)

House 11

Brad Dee (R)

House 12

Mike Schultz (R)

House 13

Paul Ray (R)

House 14

Curtis Oda (R)

House 15

Brad Wilson (R)

House 16

Steve Handy (R)

House 17

Stewart Barlow (R)

House 18

Timothy Hawkes (R)

House 19

Raymond Ward (R)

House 20

Becky Edwards (R)

House 21

Doug Sagers (R)

House 22

Susan Duckworth (D)

House 23

Sandra Hollins (D)

House 24

Rebecca Chavez-Houck (D)

House 25

Joel Briscoe (D)

House 26

Angela Romero (D)

House 27

Mike Kennedy (R)

House 28

Brian King (D)

House 29

Lee Perry (R)

House 30

Michael Lee (D)

House 31

Sophia DiCaro (R)

(Republican pick-up)

House 32

LaVar Christensen (R)

House 33

Craig Hall (R)

House 34

Johnny Anderson (R)

House 35

Mark Wheatley (D)

House 36

Patrice Arent (D)

House 37

Carol Spackman Moss (D)

House 38

Eric Hutchings (R)

House 39

Jim Dunnigan (R)

House 40

Justin Miller (D)

House 41

Dan McCay (R)

House 42

Kim Coleman (R)

House 43

Diane Lewis (D)

(Democratic pick-up)

House 44

Christine Passey (D)

House 45

Steve Eliason (R)

House 46

Marie Poulson (D)

House 47

Ken Ivory (R)

House 48

Keven Stratton (R)

House 49

Robert Spendlove (R)

House 50

Rich Cunningham (R)

House 51

Greg Hughes (R)

House 52