Insider Survey: Luz Robles’ Chances in Utah’s 2nd District

Our “Political Insiders” and readers weigh in on whether Democrat Luz Robles has a shot at winning a Congressional seat in 2014. Read on for results and comments.

Selected anonymous comments:

“Ms. Robles has a kind heart and lots of guts and has been somewhat effective in the legislature. I wish someone would put her through a tough leadership/public speaking course so that her good ideas would be better heard. It will take a loud, aggressive, merciless Luz Robles to beat Chris Stewart. But I will be voting for her!”

“There is a greater chance that Swallow serves his full term and gets re-elected.”

“The district is weighted in favor of the GOP. The best scenario for her is that Rep. Chris Stewart will be ousted by a stronger Republican. The fickle, ‘what have you done for me lately’ nature of the delegates makes that a possibility. If the delegates pick someone other than Stewart who takes a harder line stance, then she has a chance.”

“Are you serious????”

“The district leans Republican. Any Democrat would need a demonstrably weak opponent and strong cross-party support to pull it off. She’s no Ben McAdams, even if Democrats love her.”

“I give props to the D’s for getting a candidate with any name recognition at all, but outside of Rose Park, I doubt she has a chance anywhere else in the district.”

“She’ll get no traction in Davis County and southern Utah.”

“Robles has very little name recognition in a gerrymandered district while a Democratic president is doing some very unpopular things. Stewart is definitely not impressive, but he would have to do something incredibly stupid for the Republican not to win this district.”

“This is possible if we register many Latinos and other minorities, but first making sure we exploit the incumbent’s medieval thinking aboout science and global warming.”

“She knows she has no shot. This is a play for Mayor in ’15. Shrewd move.”

“Robles would be a strong leader for Utah. She would accomplish more than the current Representative. Message to Luz Robles from a white, Mormon, republican: Your biggest obstacle is not Utah’s republican majority, but rather the unspoken truth that many Utahns harbor racist feelings towards Latinos. Evidence for which is demonstrated by the fact that Utah’s entire Republican congressional delegation refuses to support comprehensive immigration reform. They take that stance because they have many vocal constituents pushing them that way. I hear it from many Utahns, they resent Latinos moving into their neighborhood, opening businesses, sending their kids to school, and want them to be deported. It is sad but true, racism is alive and well in Utah.”

“If Robles is treated poorly by the racist elements of the Republican Party in Utah’s Dixie, it could sway enough moderates to back her in the general. Stewart hasn’t done enough for us to merit another term and his refusal to support the LDS Church and business community on immigration reform could come back to bite him against a Mormon moderate Latina bank VP.”

“Uphill battle for sure but Stewart hasn’t exactly been a shining star. It will take a lot of money and even more work.”

“It’s a tough district for any Democrat. She has the best chance of any Democrat, which means slight. Her campaign will have to be perfect and flawless, and Stewart will have to make some kind of mistake.”

“Are you serious? Luz has no depth of understanding of any of the major issues – like the economy. Having presented with her at various public meetings that has been abundantly clear. She has absolutely NO chance of winning – you can bank on that!”

“She has no shot at winning, but she’ll at least make the 2nd District race marginally more interesting. Too bad she can’t run run in the 4th District. It would be fun to see Sen. Robles go after Mia Love in a debate.”

“State Sen. Robles will be too frightening to the voters in that gerrymandered district. She’s a Democrat, Latina, smart, politically calculating–too scary for most Utah voters. Big donors will see her campaign as too risky to support.”

“Better odds that Mike Lee agrees with ANYthing that Pres Obama says.”

“I’m an independent. If Robles was more mainstream, I’d be for her… Chris Stewart’s meta tag says he ‘represents the people of the 2nd district’. He isn’t in line with too many of us. He’s only been there 8.5 mos, and he’s already acting like a veteran congressman. Taking pork, and porking his constituents. I’m NOT impressed. One and done.”

Sen. Robles is sharp and willing to work across the aisle on legislation. The odds aren’t good, but she’s not as easily dismissed as some of the other train wrecks that Democrats have fielded in the past.”

“Not unless she changes her party affiliation.”

“She is very nice person with a great life story. However, she is not a public speaker. She often mumbles her speeches and people can’t understand what she is saying. Her status as a divorced, single mother will be an issue for some voters. I don’t see her gaining a lot of support outside of the Hispanic/pro-immigration crowd.”

“Why doesn’t Nancy Pelosi just come out and run? Oh yea, she has no chance either. This is a safe Republican seat.”

“If State Senator Robles can get an overwhelming amount of Salt Lake County voters in Utah’s 2nd District to vote for her, use environmental messages effectively to get the ‘soft’ eco-voters who care about Utah’s environment, and get the moderates to get out and vote for her, then I think she has a chance of winning.”

“I remember hearing during the election that the Second District is the 37th most Republican district in the country. I base my answer on that statistic and not on the relative merits of Luz Robles or Congressman Stewart. I would add the caveat that anything can happen!”

“It depends on who the Republican nominee is. I don’t think it’s safe to consider Representative Stewart the presumptive nominee of the Republican party.”

“Her campaign will provide jobs for political fundraisers and the political ‘industry’ of consultants, printers and the media to sell air time, etc. One million dollars to stimulate the economy. Sounds good to me, particularly when there is no chance of her getting elected. Come on Democrats, get more candidates!”

“Article in the Trib said that she would be ‘targeting residents who don’t vote and getting them registered and to the polls.’ Please show me a winning campaign where this has worked before. Also, in the same article, Sen. Robles said, ‘I’m very much in the middle.’ Good luck trying to convince the voters of that. There is no one in the Utah state legislature that has a more liberal voting record than Sen. Robles. Unless Cong. Stewart makes a monumental blunder, Cong. Stewart will win. Frankly, Cong. Stewart’s biggest threat will come from the Republican ranks.”

“If she had a lot of money AND Rep Stewart made a major mistake, then she could do it.”

“A great lady. A fine legislator. Not a snowball’s chance…”

“It is a Republican District, 2014 will be a Republican year, and Stewart has done a very good job — there is no compelling reason to replace him. She may run and she may get 35% plus she may be viewed as a good candidate, but everything is against her, especially in 2014.”

“A Democrat stands little or no chance of defeating a Republican in that district, even though Chris Stewart is not what he sold himself as, will face a strong challenger and likely be defeated.”

Respondents include – 

Fred Adams, Stuart Adams, Jess Agraz, Scott Anderson, Laura Arellano, Patrice Arent, Bette Arial, Neil Ashdown, Bruce Baird, Heather Barney, Steve Barth, Jeff Bell, Tom Berggren, Mike Bertelsen, Ron Bigelow, Emily Bingham-Hollingshead, Rob Bishop, Laura Black, Nanci Bockelie, Charles Bradley, Jim Bradley, Ralph Brown, Chris Bleak, Curt Bramble, Joel Briscoe, Ralph Brown, Aaron Browning, Ken Bullock, Ric Cantrell, Maura Carabello, Marty Carpenter, Rebecca Chavez-Houck, Kay Christensen, David Clark, Kim Coleman, Peter Corroon, Tim Cosgrove, Fred Cox, Lew Cramer, Gene Davis, Richard Davis, Brad Daw, Alan Dayton, Margaret Dayton, Mike Deaver, Brad, Dee, Joseph Demma, Jake Dennis, Dan Deuel, Jeff Dixon, Brian Doughty, Carl Downing, Randy Dryer, Susan Duckworth, Donald Dunn, Alan Eastman, Becky Edwards, Scott Ericson, Chase Everton, Jessica Fawson, Janice Fisher, Wendy Fisher, Lorie Fowlke, Ronald Fox, Claire Francis, Ryan Frandsen, Adam Gardiner, Jordan Garn, Ernie Gamonal, Luke Garrott, Dave Gessel, Sheryl Ginsberg, Natalie Gochnour, Robert Grow, Karen Hale, David Hansen, Neil Hansen, Joe Hatch, Jeff Hartley, Dan Hauser, Lynn Hemmingway, Deidre Henderson, Neal Hendrickson, Casey Hill, Lyle Hillyard, Kory Holdaway, Randy Horiuchi, Ben Horsley, Bruce Hough, Scott Howell, Greg Hughes, Miriam Hyde, Allison Isom, Casey Jackson, Eric Jergensen, Mike Jerman, Jonathan Johnson, Michael Jolley, Gordon Jones, Leslie Jones, Pat Jones, Kirk Jowers, Jeremy Keele, Brian King, Scott Konopasek, Steve Kroes, Chris Kyler, Carter Livingston, Fred Lampropoulos, Clark Larsen, Douglas Larson, David Litvack, Larry Lunt, Matt Lyon, Ben McAdams, Daniel McCay, Gayle McKeachnie, JT Martin, Maryann Martindale, Jason Mathis, Bob Mayhew, Karen Mayne, Bret Milburn, Derek Miller, Rob Miller, Ethan Millard, Brett Millburn, Karen Morgan, Jeffery Morton, Mike Mower, Holly Mullen, Wayne Niederhauser, Mike Noel, Randy O’Hara, Ralph Okerlund, James Olsen, Val Oveson, Kelly Patterson, John Pearce, Helen Peters, Karen Peterson, Frank Pignanelli, Becky Pirente, Marie Poulson, Jason Powers, Tami Pyfer, Joe Pyrah, Mike Reberg, Jill Remington Love, Lauren Richards, Holly Richardson, Robin Riggs, James Roberts, Luz Robles, Ross Romero, Carol Sapp, Don Savage, Bryan Schott, Shauna Scott-Bellaccomo, Jay Seegmiller, Jennifer Seelig, Patrick Shea, Randy Shumway, Soren Simonsen, Jeremy Slaughter, Brendan Smith, Brian Somers, Carol Spackman-Moss, Robert Spendlove, Barbara Stallone, Howard Stephenson, David Stringfellow, Mike Styler, Shinika Sykes, Juliette Tennert, Gary Thorup, Kevin Van Tassell, Royce Van Tassel, Doug Thompson, Michael Waddoups, Laura Warburton, Chuck Warren, Christine Watkins, LaVarr Webb, Todd Weiler, Alan West, Mark Wheatley, Larry Wiley, Ted Wilson, Carl Wimmer, Mike Winder, Travis Wood, Thomas Wright, Crystal Young-Otterstrom

Results from the Insider poll can be heard on KSL Radio every Friday and are published on Utah every Monday.