Nearly 80 percent of Utahns believe the Earth’s climate is changing, a new UtahPolicy poll shows.
That’s a new high for that belief, the new survey by Dan Jones & Associates finds.
However, among politically conservative and older Utahns there is still significant pluralities who deny that the climate is changing at all or getting warmer – Jones finds.
Over time Jones has asked slightly different questions of Utahns considering climate change.
Do you believe it in?
Do you believe it is caused by human activity?
Is the climate getting hotter, but it is a natural swing in the Earth’s climate and environment?
In this survey, Jones asked 601 adults, polled from June 2-8 the following questions:
“Which of the following statements best represents your opinion regarding climate change?
- Climate change is occurring, and it is a global crisis.
- Climate change is occurring, but results will not be very damaging.
- Climate change is occurring, but long-term climate models cannon be trusted.
- Climate change IS NOT occurring, and long-term climate models cannot be trusted.
- Don’t know.”
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percent.
Add up the folks who believe the Earth’s climate is changing – but with some qualifications – and 79 percent of Utahns agree the Earth is getting hotter.
Only 13 percent of Utah residents say the Earth’s climate is not changing – or fall into the general category of “climate change deniers.”
In previous Jones polls for UtahPolicy, those deniers have totaled higher than this poll’s 13 percent.
Overall, 36 percent of Utahns say the climate is changing, and it is a global crisis.
Eighteen percent say it's changing, but the results will not be very damaging.
And 25 percent say the climate is changing, but long-term climate models cannot be trusted.
Seven percent didn’t know.
As has been the case in previous polls on climate change, Jones finds some real outliers – or groups that don’t come close to what most other folks believe in concerning climate change.
For example, Jones finds that 26 percent – one out of four – of senior citizens, those over 65 years of age, say the Earth’s climate is not changing at all.
And 36 percent – one out of three – people who defined themselves as “very conservative” political also don’t believe the climate is changing at all.
So, if you are older and very conservative – phooey to you: Many of you don’t believe the Earth is getting warmer.
Here are some breakouts according to age and politics.
- Younger Utahns accept that the climate is changing: 18-24-year-olds, 47 percent say it is getting hotter, and it’s a global crisis; 25 percent say it’s getting warmer, but the result is not very damaging; 10 percent say it’s getting warmer but long-term climate models can’t be trusted; and only 3 percent say the Earth is not getting warmer at all. Seventeen percent don’t know.
- Sixty-five years old and older: 34 percent say it’s getting warmer and it’s a global crisis; 15 percent say it’s getting hotter, but very little damage will result; 20 percent say it’s getting warmer, but weather models can’t be trusted; 26 percent say it’s not getting warmer; and 6 percent of the old folks don’t know.
Republicans:
- Only 14 percent say it’s getting warmer and it’s a global crisis.
- 27 percent say it’s getting hotter, but very little damage will be done because of it.
- 31 percent say it’s getting warmer, but you can’t trust long-term weather predicting models.
- And 18 percent – or almost one out of five – don’t believe the Earth is getting warmer at all.
- 10 percent of Republicans are undecided and don’t know.
Utah Democrats have very different views on this issue:
- 84 percent believe the Earth is warming and it’s a global crisis.
- 9 percent say it’s getting warmer, but very little damage will occur.
- 6 percent say it’s getting warmer, but you can’t trust long-term weather modeling.
- Only 1 percent of Democrats say it is not getting warmer.
- And 0 percent of Democrats don’t know about weather changing – they all have an opinion on it, one way or another.
Political independents are less sure about weather change than either Republicans or Democrats:
- 43 percent say the weather is changing and it’s a global crisis; 14 percent say it’s changing, but won’t harm things much; 27 percent say it’s changing, but long-term weather models can’t be trusted; only 11 percent say the climate isn’t changing at all, and 5 percent don’t know.
The most anti-climate change folks are those who said they are “very conservative politically.”
Jones finds among this group, which makes up 26 percent of the electorate:
- Only 10 percent say the Earth’s climate is changing, and it’s a global crisis.
- 21 percent say it’s change, but very little damage will occur.
- 25 percent say it’s changing, but you can’t trust weather forecast models.
- 36 percent say the climate is not changing at all.
- And 8 percent don’t know.
When you get to the “somewhat conservative” group the numbers flip – only 9 percent believe the weather is not changing at all.
And 37 percent say it’s changing, but you can’t trust the climate-change models.
So, overall, the poll finds that Utahns are becoming more acceptable of climate change advocates and the science they point to.
But whether the change is a global crisis or will do very little damage is still up in the air.
