With less than two weeks to go before the 2015 election, Jackie Biskupski looks to be building momentum in the Salt Lake City mayoral race.
A new Utah Policy survey finds Biskupski leads incumbent Ralph Becker 49-45% with 5% of voters undecided. Dan Jones & Associates tracked 330 likely voters in Salt Lake City from October 19-21 for the survey. The results are well within the margin of error of +/- 5.38%.
Among those 5% of undecided voters, Jones found that 37% are “leaning” toward Becker while 16% lean toward voting for Biskupski. The remaining voters who are undecided (47%) are truly uncertain how they will cast their ballot.
Whichever way you slice it; this race looks to be a close one down to the wire.
Comparing the results of our previous poll conducted earlier this month, Biskupski has widened her lead among over Becker by 3 points among likely voters, from a 2-percent lead to a 5-point margin. The number of undecided voters has dropped by four percentage points, from 9 to 5 percent. Again, all of the results are within the margin of error.
If Becker is to make up the gap, he’s going to have to make sure Republicans and conservatives mark their ballots for him. Among the latest group of likely voters, 54% of Republicans support Becker while 38% favor Biskupski. Biskupski has a slight lead among Democrats – 51-47% while independents overwhelmingly back Biskupski 55-37%.
Becker holds a big lead among those on the right-wing politically while Biskupski leads for the most part among moderates:
- “Very conservative” voters favor Becker 50-38%
- Those who are “somewhat conservative” back Becker 51-43%
- Biskupski crushes Becker among moderates 64-29%
- “Somewhat liberal” voters favor Biskupski 53-44%
- Becker leads among “very liberal” voters 52-44%
One decided advantage for Biskupski is among women voters. Females favor Biskupski over Becker by a 49-45% advantage. Men slightly favor Biskupski 49-46%. That disparity will be hard for Becker to overcome.
While Biskupski is enjoying a slight lead overall, Becker has time to make up the gap. The election is mostly vote-by-mail and the vast majority of ballots have not yet been returned. The Salt Lake County Clerk’s office tweeted Thursday morning that just 15.6% of ballots had been returned so far. That means more than 80% of ballots are still outstanding.
15.6% ballot return rate rate through yesterday; meaning nearly 84% of you have homework for the week #utpol #slco
— Salt Lake Co. Elect. (@VoteSLCo) October 22, 2015
Among those likely voters who have already voted in this election, 54% say they’ve cast a ballot for Biskupski while 43% voted for Becker. Among those who have yet to vote, 48% say they are supporting Becker while 42% intend to vote for Biskupski. 7% say they are undecided.