Even though Utah is one of the most Republican states in the country, only half of Utahns say they want a Republican-controlled Congress.
Our Dan Jones & Associates generic congressional survey finds that half say they would vote for a Republican congressional candidate.
These results are not exactly encouraging for Utah’s Democrats, as only 19% of Utahns tell us they would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate. That number is behind the 25% who say they “don’t know.”
Utah’s congressional delegation is 100% Republican. All four representatives and Sen. Mike Lee are up for re-election this year, and all are favored to win another term. The only hiccup could be Rep. Mia Love, who is facing a tough re-election battle against Democrat Doug Owens, who she barely beat in 2014 after narrowly losing to Democrat Jim Matheson in 2012.
Independent voters are mostly undecided on who they would like to see control Congress. A little more than a quarter (27%) say they would vote for a Republican while 15% would support a Democrats. 44% say they don’t know.
That indecision could be the key in the Love vs. Owens rematch as Owens will need to win a sizeable number of independent votes to have a chance at unseating Love.
In fact, when we break these numbers down by congressional district, they suggest there may be a narrow path to victory for Owens. 46% of respondents in that area say they would vote for a Republican, and just 22% say they would vote for a Democrat. But, 29% say they don’t know. It would be nearly impossible for Owens to win every single undecided vote, which would give him a slim majority. But, if he can find a way to peel off a sizeable number of Republicans and win big among independents, he might have a chance, but a lot of things would need to go right for him.
As you might imagine, conservatives say they would vote for a Republican while liberals support Democrats. However, moderates in Utah are almost evenly divided, with 25% saying they would vote for a Republican and 20% voting for a Democrat. 43% are undecided.
The survey was conducted January 6-13 among 845 adults who were contacted via telephone (both landline and cell phone) and online means. The statewide margin of error is +/- 3.37%. The margin of error in the 4th Congressional District is +/- 6.26%.