Utah Republican delegates voted to send their U.S. Senate and CD3 nominations to a June primary election. Mitt Romney will face Utah Rep. Mike Kennedy for Senate while Rep. John Curtis is in a rematch against Chris Herrod in the 3rd Congressional District.
Our "Political Insiders" don't expect those elections to be much of a contest as they overwhelmingly expect Romney and Curtis to win.
Romney lost the delegate vote to Kennedy at the Utah GOP Convention while Herrod was able to sneak into a primary re-match with Curtis by a handful of votes.
In the U.S. Senate matchup, 93% of the Republicans who answered our survey say Romney will win, as do 94% of the Democrats and 81% of our readers.
In CD3, 93% of our Republicans, 100% of our Democrats and 86% of our readers say Curtis will beat Herrod.
Selected anonymous comments:
It was the worst convention I have ever been to. Mitt would have got the nomination outright if voting had occurred earlier. The party leadership let the people who aren't really Republicans take over the convention for four hours of useless debate. 800 delegates who actually have a life outside of inside republican party politics left before the vote on Mitt occurred, and he needed only 80 more to win outright. How many of the 800 that left early were Mitt voters? Probably the vast majority. We need an initiative that goes to just a primary and no convention. I never thought I would say that, but it is time, based on this crazy convention.
Of the 750k GOP voters here, how many even know who Mike Kennedy is on voting day? 100k?
The winner of the primary election has long been a foregone conclusion. The real question is whether this latest embarrassing and pathetic stunt by the wing-nuts is finally the straw that breaks the camel's back. Hopefully, Utah voters will say enough is enough and will support the Count My Vote ballot initiative by a landslide and finally put an end to this idiocy! (But I realize that even with the passage of CMV, idiocy is an incurable malady, and it will continue to be a pox upon the party for a long time to come.)
The voting will be closer than expected, but Gov. Romney will prevail with ~60% of the vote.
I am fine with Mitt being in a primary. He only moved to Utah five years ago and should have to work at this. No one wants a coronation. Mike Kennedy is a great guy with a conservative voting record. With that said, Mitt will still get more than 70% of the vote. This is Hatch v. Liljenquist 2.0.
It will be hard to beat Romney's name recognition and reputation.
The state GOP really nailed the coffin in the caucus-convention system by giving Mitt Romney, Utah’s favorite son, a second place finish. It is clearly non-representative of the state's feelings.
This will be another blow to the loyal caucus supporters who are showing a disconnect with the electorate. They choose a convention winner solely on the path a candidate chooses to obtain a spot on the ballot, and not on substantive traits
No doubt that Mitt wins. Still, it's nice to know he was not given a free pass by at least some people in this state.
Kenndey might be the better choice in the June primary, but the masses are enthralled with Romney.
Mike is a first class person and a great candidate who should challenge the tea party darling, Mike Lee. Utah is fortunate to have someone of Romney’s stature willing to serve Utah. Sure we give up some ground, but Utah chooses Romney.
If I were a gambling man, I’d put my life savings on Mitt.
Mike Lee barely got out of the convention. Look all the way back to Dixie Leavitt when he ran for governor. I believe he got more votes than his opponent. The percentage of votes received in the convention provides little or no guidance to who will win the primary.
His victory in the primary will surpass the 44-point win by Gov. Herbert. Another indictment of the outdated caucus-convention system.
There can be no real doubt that Romney will, and should win. Romney may well be the single most qualified candidate to have ever run for the U.S. Senate from Utah. Kennedy may be smart and a nice enough guy, but he does not rise to the same level of qualification. But for the fight over signature gathering and the intolerance (purity) of the right-wing faction of the Republican Party, Kennedy would continue to wander in obscurity. Romney has closer ties to Utah than Sen. Hatch did when he ran.
Mike Kennedy wasn’t a standout as a legislator, and I don’t see him as a leader in the U.S. Senate. Very few people, outside of his district and the GOP delegates, no one knows who he is.
Romney will win it. Again, the State GOP delegates will prove most handily that they are out of step with the general GOP electorate. Good grief!!! I'm glad that they weren't in my marching band! They can't even walk and chew gum at the same time. Can you read my sarcasm?
If you look at recent elections, it's obvious about 30% of the GOP is far right. Lilenquist got 34% of the vote against Hatch. Johnson got 28% against Herbert. Herrod got 31% against Curtis in the Special Election. I predict similar results in this race. Kennedy will get 30-35% of the vote.
Mike Kennedy is a good man. In any other race, I would seriously consider him. But voters will not pass up the experience and connections Mitt Romney has. You can't replace a Senator like Hatch with someone with limited connections and experience (come on, four years in the Utah House?) like Kennedy. Kennedy is a good guy and feeds the delegates red meat, but I think that he's just too bland for the majority of voters.
Mr. Herrod will be lucky to see 25% in this race.
Herrod couldn't even win a race for the legislature in 2016. He is way out of his league and is wasting everyone's time.
Chris Herrod is not credible for the vast majority of CD3 voters. He will lose and lose badly.
GOP nominating caucuses seldom reflect the mind of the electorate.
I would like to thank the State delegates for nominating Chris. It is another opportunity for pragmatic mainstream Republicans to demonstrate the gap between themselves and frustrating party Puritanism.
This is the same race Curtis just whooped Herrod in - when Herrod had a bunch of DC super PACs helping. Now Herrod has no $ and no help. So umm, no.
Herrod barely forced a primary, and voters were clear last year they preferred Curtis over him.
Curtis will run away with this. Having a Mitt Romney on the primary ballot will ensure enough reasonable votes down ballot to help candidates like Congressman Curtis.
As with Romney, Curtis is closer to the stance of most Republicans, while Herrod represents the Far-Right fringe. As a Democrat, I'd love to see Herrod win because his extremism would make him a much easier target.
Curtis blasted Herrod in the last primary, no reason to think he won't do so again.
Curtis should win this easily. He has done a good job in Congress and has been very open with his town hall meetings throughout the district. Herrod (the new Merrill Cook) will cater to the 30% of Republicans on the far right and will get about that percentage of the vote.
Herrod will exceed expectations because it is no longer dividing the 60% who opposed Curtis a few months ago. However, Curtis will still win due to Herrod's difficulties in running a campaign.
Keep in mind, Curtis beat Herrod in the previous 2017 Republican primary 43.28% to 32.57% (a difference of 10%) and then beat him at the Republican convention in 2018 by 17%. What does this all mean? Herrod is losing ground and has lost too much to make up. And Herrod won't have Margaret Dayton to his dirty work this time either.
The only reason Herrod didn't win last time was Tanner Ainge. No Ainge, no Curtis.
The right-wing nut jobs try their damnedest to push through the hardest right candidates. Unfortunately for them, the voters will decide. Also, how much did they spend to get on the ballot, over $200,000 and then they end up not getting the signatures? Mitt Romney uses volunteers and gets the 28,000. Hilarious.
It's almost like Chris Herrod is on a mission to prove that the caucus system is out of touch with the average voters.