Will the furor over the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation battle boost Republicans or Democrats at the polls this November, or will it fade out? Our “Political Insiders” aren’t sure what effect it will have on November’s elections.
We asked our panel whether the lingering anger would help Republicans or Democrats in the 2018 midterms.
- A plurality of the Republicans on our panel thought the Kavanaugh nomination fight would be a wash politically, with 40% saying it would energize both Republicans and Democrats. 35% of Republicans said it would energize their base.
- Democrats are convinced the fight will bring their voters to the polls. 65% said it would boost their voters, while 12% think it will help Republicans. 23% thought it would benefit both parties.
- A plurality of our readers thinks Democrats will be helped most by the Kavanaugh controversy. 25% believe it will aid Democrats, while 23% said both parties would benefit politically.
Nationally, 46% of voters say the Senate “made the wrong decision” in approving Kavanaugh, while 40% feel the Senate did the right thing. That’s according to a Morning Consult/Politico poll from last week. The same poll shows the confirmation fight has energized Democrats more than Republicans. 77% of Democrats say they are “very motivated” to vote in the midterms while 68% of Republicans say they are.
Selected anonymous comments:
The Kavanaugh fight has United a fractured Republican Party including firing up women who don’t want to see their sons and husbands put through a false accusation.
It will help Democrats in tight races. This will cause the Senate to turn blue, but Utah will not see any effects.
Both parties are upset and angry over the confirmation process—and rightly so.
It will help nationally. I don't think it will affect Utah voters though.
Democrats were already energized over President Trump. On balance, Kavanaugh helps Republicans more because they needed a battle cry and now they have one “innocent until proven guilty.”
I think that the plan backfired on the Democrats. They had their base up and ready, and the GOP was sitting back watching the fight . . . Then when things got ratcheted up, the GOP base got engaged, and now there will be greater than anticipated GOP turnout. I still think the Dems take the house, but the Senate stays with the GOP.
Ultimately, the Republicans won, and the Democrats lost spectacularly so there is only one side that will be energized to respond to the confirmation.
Losses motivate more than wins.
To a degree, it will energize both sides, but it and two horrible years of Trump will give Democrats a big boost. And many reasonable and moral Republicans know confirming Kavanaugh was wrong.
It will energize people on both sides. Democrats might win the House but it will be short lived, and Republicans will keep the Senate and maybe pick up a seat or two. 2020 Republicans take back the House, keep the Senate and the White House and add at least one more Supreme Court Justice!!!!!!!
Democrats were the more energized group 2-3 weeks ago. Now both sides are energized.
After how the Democrats acted no normal person would vote Democrat again. Every time I think the Democrat Party can not go any lower, they continue to lower the bar. With no proof what so ever they will try and destroy a good man but still defend Bill Clinton. What a sad and sick joke they have become.
I have helped people register to vote who never have and know a few people who say they rarely vote but definitely are as a result of the GOP chaos.
The Republicans are just saying that this is a motivating factor to make it seem like they have momentum. I've not spoken with one single actual R who wouldn't have already voted that cares one bit.
Crazy animus in politics. If people want to be heard, they need to vote. With Romney, I feel that the voter turnout will be robust this November.
The women of America will show their displeasure with having a sexual predator on the Supreme Court by voting for Democrats in larger numbers than ever before!
There was an enthusiasm gap before the imbroglio... this event reminded many Republicans why they decided to vote for the President in the first place…
The Kavanaugh fight will energize both sides, but it will help the Democrats more. I doubt the "blue wave" will be as strong as some have predicted, but the Republicans are very likely to lose the Senate and many seats in the House.
This Kavanaugh debacle is a D- grade for both sides of the aisle. If the energy is being generated in the midterm election is nothing but by anger and rage, it will do nothing to alleviate the rancor and idiotic posturing being done by the D's and R's. Our government's leaders are acting in an unacceptable way. I can remember an old political cartoon showing the statue of Abraham Lincoln in his monument with his head in his hands. That is how I feel.
The sitting on the Democrats of the letter by Ford and then releasing it after the public hearings were done was intentional and harmful to all concerned. Ford's account was not backed up by anyone, and she could not remember basic details to prove her case.
Republicans need to start counting. They can't run a party with the support of white men only. The numbers just don't add up. Not even close.
The only offset will be various successful vote suppression efforts by the GOP.
The men on both sides will basically not be affected. Many, many women, however, feel affronted and insulted by Kavanaugh's demeanor and assumption of superiority and will take out that anger on Republican candidates.
I think that nationally, we'll probably see a drop in voter enthusiasm from both parties before Election Day. But, since Utah is overwhelmingly vote by mail, and ballots come out this week (if you don't have them already!), Utahns will have a chance to cast their ballot while the confirmation process is still fresh in the brain. I think the enthusiasm gap will hold, and Democrats will see a bit of a bump, but I don't think it will lead to a Democratic victory in a seat that wasn't already competitive.
It will help Democrats, but not enough to take control of the House.
In Utah, it will probably NOT make a difference. Nationally, Republicans are outraged about the lies and false attacks on an innocent Supreme Court nominee, and they will vote to try to prevent the Supreme Court selection process from being a circus in the future.
Kavanaugh should never have been confirmed to the Supreme Court. His actions follow the accusations of Ms. Ford were shameful. A man with his experience should have been able to show some restraint.