Democrats won control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections, flipping at least 35 Republican seats. At the same time, Republicans increased their majority in the Senate by at least two. Our “Political Insiders” divided along party lines on what the 2018 results mean for President Donald Trump’s 2020 re-election chances.
The Republicans on our panel said the shifting political landscape improves Trump’s chances at re-election, while the Democrats who responded, as well as our readers, think Trump’s re-election prospects have declined as a result of the 2018 midterms.
- 62% of our Republicans say Trump’s re-election chances have increased since the 2018 midterms.
- 100% of the Democrats who responded to our survey think Trump’s re-election bid will be more difficult because of the midterm results.
- 69% of our readers say Trump’s re-election prospects have dimmed due to the election results earlier this month.
Selected anonymous comments:
The Democrats handed Trump a perfect foil in Speaker Pelosi. Now Trump has someone less popular than him to take shots at and throw red meat to his followers.
Having Maxine Waters chairing a committee may actually help Trump.
The Democrats were able to energize their voters in the midterms - I expect to see more of the same in the next presidential election.
Midterms are a clear indication that voters who dislike Trump will show up in force for the next presidential election.
Regardless of how he spins it, Trump’s influence hurt more candidates than it helped. Also, his chaotic administration and continued hate mongering are eroding support from moderate Republicans.
I don't think it did anything.
It is not the results of the election, but the mindset of the voters that counts. The fact that the voters, overall, wanted to balance out the power in Washington is not necessarily a predictor of a Presidential race.
The nastiness of Trumpism took a significant hit during the election. While his supporters picked up Senate seats in IN, MO, and ND, they also lost races in Republican strongholds like WV, MT, and AZ. This is not to mention the big loss in the KN governorship, as well as losses in the PA, OH, and WI senate races (these weren’t even close). This all happened with a strong economy. We can only hope this is a sign of the American people rejecting Trump and his disgusting ways.
It all depends on who the Democrats nominate in 2020. They did a great job of having running district specific messages to move the map in their favor, and their playbook was strong. The President is a brand unto himself, and it is hard to figure what his moves will be. Whoever the Democratic nominee is, they need to run their race, not a race about voting against Donald Trump, but a race about why they should lead, and that should help with the movements we saw in PA, WI, and MI that make for a good map in 2020.
Decreases his chances because that follows my premise that he is going to self-destruct during his first term. But, who knows? He won the 2016 election which nobody thought could happen.
While not the first president to lose House seats during a midterm election, President Trump certainly seemed to be the driving factor in such a high Democrat turnout. The question Republicans must be asking themselves is this: what do we lose long-term by continuing to back someone who is not fit to lead?
It really depends on what the Democrats do while in power. I doubt anything will get done but if they use the bully pulpit of what they have sent to the Senate and what was rejected or ignored that could help them.
Just like the Kavanaugh hearings, the Democrats will not be able to help themselves from an overreach. This will energize Trump's base and allow an opening to pick up independents.
Although Americans in recent memory have never seen anything like Trump, both Clinton and Obama also lost ground in their first midterms and then breezed to re-election. So history is probably a good indication that it will be Trump, “Four more years!”
After the Democrats have two years to show their true colors, people will remember why they voted for Trump in the first place. If he can stay out of his own way, the Dems will pave the way to his reelection, especially if they decide to run tired candidates Joe Biden or...surprise...Hillary Clinton!
Who is naive enough to think that a president so unpopular as to destroy Republican rule everywhere outside of the reddest of the red districts will be helped by the pending investigations into his fully public misdeeds? I don't believe he'll run for a second term (can't risk the electoral backlash that would utterly humiliate him) and I suspect if he didn't need the pardon power and the immunity granted by the office, he would have resigned the day after the election.
If Nancy Pelosi becomes speaker of the house, it will greatly improve his chances. Time for some major changes in the democratic party, Nationally and locally.
Didn't vote for Trump or Hillary. Won't in 2020 either. Please R and D parties, pick someone better as nominees. Both candidates were and are corrupt. Perhaps the nation picks someone that isn't R or D. I would rather have Mia Love or Ben McAdams for POTUS.
President Trump is a rogue bull in a china shop and is his own worst enemy. Some Republican lawmakers are trying to keep a safe distance from the mayhem of this presidency. The President's re-electability cannot be predicted. Who knows what will happen? As a Republican, the big question for me is what the RNC will do about it. Does the national party have the ability to not back a sitting president for their own survival or continue to back him at their own peril? I really feel that the RNC is another "epicenter of dysfunction."
President Obama lost far more seats in the House, and he still won his second term.
Although a Democratically-held house will provide a punching bag for the Trump re-election campaign (which will help him mobilize his base, the investigations that the house will undertake will generate headlines that will sway many voters either to vote against him or to stay home. But the overall effect will be small. This biggest factor will be whether the Democrats can get their act together and nominate someone acceptable to a broad segment of America. Joe Biden is their best chance at that. If they nominate Beto O'Rourke, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker or Kamala Harris, they are sunk.
Trump has not yet shown the ability to realize that when certain things do not go his way the root cause is often his own behavior. Instead, he doubles down on the bombastic rhetoric, false statements, and name-calling. Then he runs to his base for a rally that gives him solace and the affirmation that he is always correct. Unless he seriously looks at the midterm results and sees that he needs to work with the Congress (both parties), he will only grow more frustrated and will grow so disliked that he will not win re-election because the feeling in the country will be ABT (Anyone But Trump).
People want what they perceive to be balance. Bush's second midterm was a disaster as well as both of Obama's midterms. If anything this gives Trump a direct enemy to point to and unload on in Pelosi, which is a gift because the Democratic Primary in 2020 will be so overcrowded and convoluted there will be no front-runner for a long time. - This was a gift to Trump!
Hopefully, he may get the hint that 67% of Americans hate his guts and not run.