Our “Political Insiders” say Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are most likely to win the 2016 Iowa Caucuses.
50% of the Republicans and Democrats on our panel say Trump will prevail on the GOP side. Another 36% pick Ted Cruz while 10% say Marco Rubio will win. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina each got 1%. Nobody thinks Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich or Rick Santorum will come out on top.
64% who responded to our survey said Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders will be the winner on the Democratic side. 35% said former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton while just 1% picked Martin O’Malley.
Selected anonymous comments:
“Never thought I’d say this but I wish Romney were in the race.”
“How do we save ourselves from Donald Trump?”
“Let’s hope the voters in Iowa are rational enough not to give Trump the win (or Hillary for that matter).”
“When Beethoven composed, his manuscripts looked like a war had been fought on paper. He felt that the final product of his struggle was brought about by inevitability. I think that this absolute political dogfight and associated hoopla will all come down to inevitability. Do I like it? NO! Am I cynical? YES!”
“Although Cruz and Sanders are both unelectable in a general election, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if they won Iowa. Although a win can provide momentum, it should be remembered that Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won here in 2008 and 2012.”
“I’ve stopped making predictions for this election.”
“Hopefully, Clinton falls flat on her face again, and this will be the beginning of the end for her.”
“Trump either wins big or comes in 3rd or 4th. He has no turnout operation.”
“Not that it matters. Iowa rarely votes for the eventual nominee. It’s time to end this ridiculous nomination system and go to a rotating regional primary.”
“Rand will perform very well and surprise many, but Cruz has the biggest machine and will win.”
“On the GOP side, Cruz will win going away. The polls that show Trump ahead are general attitudes, not likely caucus attendees. They also project over 300,000 caucus attendees, which is 50% larger than even when Obama rallied the troops in 2008. Sanders, wins by a respectable margin and then moves in to hammer Hillary in New Hampshire. By South Carolina, the Dems are faced with supporting an open, avowed socialist as their nominee. The contrast between socialism and free markets could not be more dramatic between Sanders and Cruz. Cruz wins in a close one.”
