Nearly half of all Utahns think Hillary Clinton will win the White House in November, while a little more than a quarter say Donald Trump will be the victor.
A new UtahPolicy.com/Dan Jones & Associates survey asked Utahns who they thought was most likely to win the election later this year. 45% said Hillary Clinton and 28% picked Donald Trump. 7% thought some other candidate would win while 19% were undecided.
Hillary Clinton opened up a big lead over Trump nationally following the Democratic National Convention, and that lead seems to be holding up. Clinton also leads Trump in many battleground state polls, which makes his path to victory in November much more tenuous.
Trump has a 12-point lead over Clinton in Utah according to our latest general election poll.
The number of Utahns who think Clinton will win in November has risen slightly, about 2%, since the last time we asked the question in June. At the same time, the number of Utahns who say Trump is going to win has dropped by 3-points.
Right now, 48% of Republicans say they think Trump is going to win the election, while just 24% say Clinton will. Those numbers haven't moved at all since June when 47% of Republicans picked Trump to win, and 25% said Clinton.
Democrats are much more convinced that Clinton will win in November, with 90% saying she will win. None of the Democrats we surveyed picked Trump to win. Democrats are more convinced than ever that Clinton is going to win. In June, 84% said she would be the winner while 4% picked Trump.
Independent voters also think Clinton will defeat Trump. 51% chose Clinton while just 19% said Trump. Those numbers have moved toward Clinton slightly since June when 46% picked Clinton, and 26% chose Trump.
The Dan Jones & Associates survey was conducted July 18 - August 4, 2016, among 858 likely Utah voters with a margin of error +/- 3.34%