Republican Mia Love has a 13-point lead over Democrat Doug Owens.
The Love/Owens matchup was one of the most anticipated in the country. Democrats targeted the race in their "Red to Blue" program, and many pundits had it rated as a possible toss-up. That's not surprising given Love's slim margin of victory over Owens in 2014.
That titanic electoral showdown does not appear to be materializing right now.
Love leads Owens 51-38%. Constitution Party candidate Collin Simonsen gets 4% while 7% are undecided. Those numbers are identical to our August survey.
The Utah Debate Commission survey from September had Love with a 19-point lead over Owens, 49-30%.
Seemingly, the onslaught of advertising from Love has kept her in the lead over Owens. Love purchased $1 million in advertising ahead of the election. Additionally, GOP groups are pouring $500,000 into the race ahead of the November election.
Owens and his backers have been peppering the airwaves as well this year, but it doesn't seem to be doing them any good. Owens has purchased nearly $700,000 in advertising, and the Democratic House Majority PAC is kicking in another $383,000.
Love also has a big fundraising lead over Owens. She raised $1.4 million over the last quarter to Owens' $450,000. Love also has more than three times as much cash on hand than Owens heading into the final stretch.
In 2014, Owens started closing the gap with Love over the final weeks of the campaign but fell short. This year, it appears that late Owens rally has not started yet.
There's no gender gap at all in Utah's 4th District. Men prefer Love to Owens 58-34% while women pick the Republican incumbent 46-41 over the Democrat.
It's long been said for a Democrat to beat a Republican in a high-profile race in Utah; they need to dominate Democratic voters, win independents by a large margin and pick off about 1/4 of Republicans. The numbers show Owens is not meeting those metrics.
- Republicans favor Love 82-10%. Owens needs to get about 25% in this group to have a chance.
- Democrats overwhelmingly support Owens 94-3%.
- Independent voters pick Owens, but not enough to give him a lead. Owens wins this group 48-36%. He likely needs 60% of independents or more to beat Love.
Both Love and Owens have shied away from presidential politics this go-around. That's probably wise given the widespread negative feelings toward both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton this election season. Love has refused to endorse Trump this year. Likewise, Owens' camp runs screaming from any question about Hillary Clinton.
Love's campaign manager Dave Hansen said a win by Love would help ensure that Congress stays in Republican hands.
"I want every Utahn to know that when they see a commercial that says 'paid for by House Majority PAC,' they should know that is Nancy Pelosi's PAC trying to buy Utah. We are pleased with the numbers, but we need every Utahn to vote in this election to ensure Mia Love wins and that Republicans hold control of the House," said Hansen in an email statement.
The survey was conducted October 12-22, 2016 among 404 likely voters in Utah's 4th District. It has a margin of error +/- 4.87%.